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[虚拟币交流]
挖矿报告：比特币减半后要涨到10万美元大型矿企才能避免亏损（转载）
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比特币下一次区块奖励减半已不足350天，减半效应什么时候会开始发挥影响力、历史# r+ I4 H9 e7 |% |4 n7 h
真的能重演吗？一直是投资者关注的焦点。不过近日一份矿企研究报告引发了讨论。4 R- S% r* q+ G: r3 }& `6 n3 w/ P; n
并不看好Riot Platforms等上市矿企证券的前景
" n9 j( U5 Q9 a9 V- N3 R& \ F近日，一份发布在Seeking Alpha的报告原文指出，虽然比特币近期于$30,000区间持续盘整，但以Riot) A8 C1 g+ d0 x
Platforms为首的上市矿业公司的股价却迎来了超50%的涨幅。
\; C/ v* [! j# v5 S1 Z7 x但与此同时，报告以Riot Platforms为例指出，虽然市场预测该公司挖矿算力将在2024年增加两倍，但研究员认* H a- e" H/ c1 O7 S6 L7 D
为，矿工们也很可能因区块奖励减半而面临严重营运压力。(能获得的奖励从6.25变成3.125枚新BTC)$ \/ A( t9 L# @. S' t5 X% H6 N* ^9 I
就算像Riot这样的矿企可以依靠发行新股来维持营运，但这将稀释现存股票的价值，使股票的基本面收到损害，* [1 d" t3 X, K+ x9 @4 r! D$ x
因此，研究员并不看好这些矿企证券在比特币减半后的价格走势。
+ o4 f; j$ d/ O; T矿企维持当前估值，比特币须涨至约10万美元
3 u# f, m4 N. f( X# k' M- a- ]据报告进一步说明，为了让矿企维持当前稍高的估值水平，分析师认为这在比特币区块奖励减半后可能需要待比
' Z q) K. e8 Q- h& @/ C6 `特币到达9.8万美元才能实现：除非比特币的表现远超我们的数据模型，否则我们认为比特币行业不可能毫发无
" f* _) j. r+ C( }+ D( _伤。即便Riot雄心勃勃地表明他们的算力将到达35EH/s，我们的模型也表明比特币的交易价格须高于98,000美元2 M* d6 I" Q' D
才能表明Riot目前的估值在减半后是合理的。
+ t# ~ A, [$ H8 M9 e& R综上所述，报告还警告用户持有比特币矿企的股票风险极高，认为目前的基本面并无法匹配当前估值——而这还( T+ x) x( S: V* z3 N# D# x
是没有考虑明年比特币区块奖励减半的情况下。$ X0 {4 k. n% H$ V+ ]% r) T0 \
+ a- ~8 X; j* d: t2 t' o3 A9 G3 L; s0 Q( e# y
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