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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
! z9 i% a: n3 d! E, j/ t/ n断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。
0 P5 X* i6 U' y5 I Z7 G2 V/ o# p但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上
1 C8 R. A5 n0 G" B- N. b30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
W# e/ U# y. Q! a波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
3 v z' ?8 r! ^8 X- J( }- ]! u近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
' ?5 c% `2 t( t+ N1 n: Z: h金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)# [. R8 I3 t( \0 u8 |3 p% X! i
从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的 k: [, {" S( |
低点。- E3 g' M* q/ p/ a7 X
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
2 s' I- @ I/ K& H$ M' ?另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突. F( }9 D, T- q
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。
2 C& z J) \' B" [3 C' R4 H. @+ C目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
( }2 s; n2 q/ t+ b率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。* X5 g2 G$ ]9 E' y% Y4 O
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael8 ^8 j0 l$ l1 m! l% _- w
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。" t( u0 K: w" K
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种; O, Y% O7 ] ?: Q+ P) R
情况不会在短时间内结束。”
3 Q5 f; [2 @: w9 I7 P6 o3 b纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下% P/ y3 Z' H# z
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
: g) K1 S% j# g( }$ e- K比特币ETF即将通过？' e$ s7 ~ C3 j- D5 G; q
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg
2 x& v4 Y! t8 O" g4 a资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上
# k, [4 U1 ] b表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的6 z1 x( ?9 Z, P& O
问题。) {. E5 F' E7 ~' ^# k' I0 x% y0 S; A$ w
似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
4 o2 Z: n7 G5 V( d7 |) t+ R( ^7 c+ r; ]3 `- J8 n0 X- Q; i
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