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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
4 H: {, G( \3 w9 C6 @) Z4 G" J, }委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自4 L& F8 t# R" s( g, X9 u
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。! v/ K) @% ?) c1 e" Q6 e
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
2 b; {$ o* Q; P0 F: O( ]/ F$ K批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始8 p# p0 P3 `3 p
后240天做出裁决。. y* t" U7 G0 g. Y& T. d- {
分析师：预料之内会被推迟
/ y- H" t5 X$ q D/ g& T彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也- X1 a3 E- z2 V4 T: H
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方
5 Y1 D7 N+ W1 I# H在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行
d7 l- s* j# Z3 R1 @长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
* M8 R- ~) W! C1 z* w% G }& _来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊+ g: p6 f6 [, E6 B# h
讶。
& i5 C3 P5 d! E- i. Y7 `) E- T事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争) y) J& ^. a1 r) B& W
环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成
4 t' Q7 j) t& Y$ R- d功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。* g9 @- u# ]! Z9 O4 v( n
三大利好消息酝酿2 m4 U# P2 q" _8 ~" u. M) z* I* g
市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：
* h I' o/ ^' m' | s2 @/ IGBTC负溢价率缩窄* ?: `0 r; X# n; c
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持
1 {' a* x4 r9 ~) D续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可
4 e A) N, M7 P; N1 S能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。5 O' {( }1 b3 I4 y- J/ @( ~
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
" W+ T% W5 Q8 H2 i% B N/ ]1 }4 X值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只
1 p# k4 Q+ N7 B3 \要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。: k7 d h2 n e0 p- N
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请
9 I9 o T- V K& i0 W, i不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后- U `7 O! x7 ~7 G
多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然8 O( n! v; J) X0 U. [
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。 v" |. }! G! g3 k* u4 t; @
; y/ z( ]1 o6 r5 s' w0 m0 A
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