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[lastpost] => 2764668 比特币大幅回调 此前借加密资产扩张的企业在市场降温后出现抛售潮 1757583153 rainwang
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势: b; S* k/ `& [8 K: p: f7 Y
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。" w- a; n1 v* T& `. j/ I; b
1 P3 k4 m* h/ n$ IPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。7 B7 P, c E& y4 p+ i& P( ?
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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& C+ g; y2 g( g- O5 B2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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( I7 w8 k' f2 v7 T7 K当前持仓成本:! {% O6 B L% Y) J, i$ E$ Q
" @ y2 v: o9 p机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;. p, i) Y: F) N( X# \
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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) s/ f& [, G1 g% ~6 METF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。! o* K4 E5 [( z8 K: M( K: q6 I c
F% m2 S2 C' h5 L; U! t X' f比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。2 G$ p8 d4 z2 m& C- a! O' ?% p
- t) W+ G* p3 _6 b1 E! V2 ^随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。; Z! |! Z; K) x5 T
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况4 _9 V8 S$ g( o& Z5 n9 a2 M) F. o
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。. Q3 i3 n0 U2 ^' A7 @0 ^ F
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。: c. _: C7 t. f# j' H% U
( [& z% m0 m5 j/ f% N/ k% _4 }SOL与XRP:8 J0 `+ b/ L, T0 L5 G3 B
: R! m# s' J* J& m5 B, SSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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* D3 I0 S% l% J$ V9 V; R. B) eXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。/ F c: a4 v& p3 \2 a% T* a" l
6 }7 A9 [: J {; P& v6 E5 ~其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。# g+ L. } r0 e. R; m. l
' g1 E$ A2 m# k4 E0 ?- B1 \. V4. AI赛道与新兴项目- c* D5 J# g* g+ ]6 `4 @
1 _, j0 C- ]1 W3 b% G0 S0 O# GAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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! e' D1 O; p. J蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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5 `5 G5 C2 k: [) b新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。1 x$ k8 [* {8 P" Y
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市场展望
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2 J2 v1 \& o3 _( n- |随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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