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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。
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Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”, x& r# k% T" C3 t
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Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普
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+ a, ^1 q' }1 x9 B3 a2 @* Z! G最近升级的互惠关税威胁。5 M6 j) T$ x- t9 v& H9 h
- }0 e5 i! I7 U* t2 u: X1 A+ K* jPark 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施4 c9 L+ j; G( ?' p- T8 ]# S, E! Z
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。1 c( T& {# u0 E6 W9 P, Q; B% X
8 Y, Z* r" T: B6 f3 h1 ^' u8 E& D美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。& A m) U$ J3 s* X& |
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4 {2 a. r9 O& M: p0 v+ H: VBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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1 f; ?1 o$ ^% K6 e: y. f“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率: E( W% P5 @/ |. ?+ x" v9 Q
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。/ c) S$ B$ {. y
( ^9 c" |- _. p9 O2 A) z根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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3 \ R( w9 s& }6 N; x# s据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。* e u7 k0 G' \! B6 {4 k
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今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。# x. [9 I6 E, F& Q. b7 f
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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