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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
: w2 i# n5 h+ i尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。% \# z8 R7 C y' J( {, V, I; G
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。5 s" C, [+ B4 Q2 R
$ L7 J0 P0 b4 e" F( \7 u! N其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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/ }, V5 u! P( G8 d6 x6 _! K: L0 bAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:, D& A$ E% u1 B
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”; C( {) i) V( p
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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# Q% G. L5 x% T% _" `; Z5 j$ Y, D因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。6 M" r9 J. p6 b; q1 q Y
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BTC 图表暗示了什么$ K! K7 [8 R* e+ X G& U
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。# T0 s$ U& f- G* [' ^5 }2 O
. T2 V _. c5 R: w! Q2 {首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。" X% O. d8 x. u9 r8 E. N
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。7 s3 t" M0 _: W9 @4 a+ p
8 i" O1 D. U9 N6 y& R9 a/ c6 L比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。# {. v6 S$ _2 p5 q Q7 K6 a
" \2 q+ z; ^* c; m# H W9 y当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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% K* O. Z, q8 v& t最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
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1 \7 p, W" J& J7 d& B最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。' o# c e' A' ^& E* i
; U6 Z8 U* m7 ?, a0 x0 R4 d简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。 X+ a8 o+ D, R6 x; Z9 w+ m3 |
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。$ \: `7 G, W4 @$ Q. t. x" s
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