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[lastpost] => 2799617 比特币价格盘整，市场情绪再次崩溃！能否反弹至 10 万美元？(转） 1769100551 叫我十三
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索（转）
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。
- t0 V* m7 [# d4 d! V% t2 q: p矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩，5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。
* L8 P# l2 T, P$ V' f这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。8 A: T4 n+ C+ _' k" x4 h; }! ^; }
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价格虽然强劲，但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动，就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅，跌回六位数以下。' v. g m# N' P0 c
. C( N' r. P8 K; p9 V2 G- P风险如此之大，谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同，有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格，这为他们带来了巨额利润。
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9 l1 O3 Q$ R- a4 `4 R! j# g从历史上看，矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么，在市场观望的同时，我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股？' S& W6 v. @ v: y
# x% S6 A" `3 z* v( d' ^+ u减半后的挖矿经济6 z1 I; X( o% u+ Z
2024 年 4 月减半之后，矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC，这给他们带来了沉重打击。( A" }" p9 W. _& I4 Y# r
& j- G! G! O5 o: u问题是，虽然奖励每四年减半，但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样，但每个区块的收益却只有一半。
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2 w& [& L4 U8 o' B# e自然，这导致平均采矿成本飙升。9 {6 O. u" l5 Q2 T( i
% P* b4 m p5 E到4月底，比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元，而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环，市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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为什么？因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略：储备枯竭，比特币市场陷入低迷，矿工收入开始减少。' j* }' X \" K4 V: w0 P
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换句话说，不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率（BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本）进一步受到挤压之前退出，加速全面矿工投降阶段。+ L' J! \9 a, h$ Y& k& H' B
; x, }3 [% Z s比特币市场陷入困境，矿工竞相前进
/ @$ i, ]1 }, [" ^, ^- Z C; U3 t距离第四次减半还有一年，开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右，而比特币市场一直横盘整理，BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。7 j# `' G; C1 w1 ]6 P
) u1 q! H3 g) I* _! r确实，比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%，甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。2 K/ p( G* s! d: i+ K' Q1 a
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但如果我们继续计分的话，矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。. }% p$ g/ c# ?+ M O: B/ L# X- j% n
$ G1 |% F& C- j; ]2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。
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! {& O4 J: [) s' Q- V8 Q& W据 The Block 报道，矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入，其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。$ ?$ q% d# d$ }" z
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话虽如此，早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数（MPI）已回升至零以上，暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。( |) Y0 f% ?1 @0 e; Q
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从历史上看，大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前，尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。& [0 ?' H X" B4 H2 Z2 ^; q
. d' s% b- Q1 C' i! K0 W: P这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间，一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。( `! \ r( | I) c% G4 m
( H) ^9 Y3 O1 ^, n7 p# r$ M5 s$ r这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索？这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。
( M9 j# p) N- S! O1 A) g+ E! C( |6 ?. S0 T5 x" ]; C- h F( e
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索？8 y" i$ d* g! z3 t9 R9 m
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