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[虚拟币交流]
8月19号行情分析,BTCETH 反弹乏力陷震荡，山寨流动性不足同步走弱
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行情回顾：老大
+ _- ?7 T/ h a9 |3 V s昨日最高：
2 @: V* I! w. j, m117543
; c% u% o4 x3 o: K; B，最低( x4 G- [# {3 t5 l, R O3 M
114640
. H) |% n7 J$ F! n1 w，波动
$ C3 e# o; G7 x" B1 S: o29038 A7 G: w. ~5 L4 j+ d8 K2 t) C7 L7 ^
个点，
/ f& V+ m- v6 P. V1 S. e7 ^: e老二# H+ ^8 u5 f& ~. d
昨日最高：
% W. ^& P' J8 E5 b4 Z- |8 e4481，6 U/ E a) H: f+ N0 c. p2 r8 t
最低：( y6 r t5 |. E% U4 n! {, T8 m7 E8 D
4225
8 M% ~) W) \' w' a7 [( L，波动5 R# V2 F7 J% H( ?6 o
256& Z: f, ~) Q0 E
个点，昨天. F. u. N7 s6 o3 `# O! _! v
周一1 p6 u3 m$ H, r6 S
BTC 昨日日线收出 “金针半阴” 形态，凌晨反抽至 117 位置后再度回落，反弹力度不及预期，短期大概率进入震荡区间。尽管昨日日线收于 116 位置，暂未完全跌破该日线支撑，但凌晨反抽后迅速下行的走势，也反映出当前行情动能偏弱。ETH 表现同样疲软，昨日收线 4345 美元，未能站稳 4350 美元关键位。日内跌破 4350 后，一度下探至 4200 美元附近并收针反弹，但反弹力度有限 —— 凌晨最高仅触及 4390 美元，连 4400 美元关口都未试探，整体反弹动能明显不足。山寨币方面，始终受困于流动性短缺：此前 ETH（二饼）上涨时，山寨就萎靡不振；如今 BTC、ETH 在高位回踩，山寨表现更显弱势。不过因流动性不足，山寨虽同步下跌，但跌幅相对可控，基本与 BTC、ETH 保持同比例下跌，甚至部分币种跌幅还小于 ETH，这种 “弱跟随” 走势，本质是流动性匮乏导致的行情低迷
$ J- v( {2 w# `( O4 } i今日周二看点：
0 q( C" ]* Q3 g" y8 fBTC% ~# |! M2 J }. V" P7 J- y
BTC在凌晨反抽弱势表现，尤其在四小时级别上的表现连续两个上插针触及117位置，这次的四小时级别更是在上冲无力只是直接开始回调下跌，按照这个情况来讲，今天的日内级别还会走跌一波，收线关注的点位就得先看下昨天的低点位置，如果说连续两个四小时级别收阴的情况，那么今天日内级别上要注意的支撑位置在113-114区间的位置才会有日内级别的反弹，上方的阻力位置看先在哪里去触及，如果日内级别上触及了支撑113-114区间再进行反抽的话，上方也就是在116-118区间再成立阻力点，如果日内的低点不去打破1145位置一线止跌反弹，上方还是需要关注震荡的区间118-119
* I* l" d1 `, `- e. s- zETH; `; \. c4 ~# V# r
ETH行情走势看着跌幅百分比是很弱势，但是要考虑到最近二饼的行情在这轮的表现中很强势，所以有这种级别的回调属于很正常的范围，尤其是从高点下来到现在回调总计600个点，所以目前整体的日线级别防守的支撑位置在4000-4200区间，四小时级别上走跌，可以日内级别关注这个位置的支撑防守，精准点可以关注4150附近的支撑位置，日内级别先看支撑防守再看反弹的力度，目前的走势属于一个走跌行情，行情偏弱，做合约的注意，昨天在视频中讲到过这方面
: N! X4 z# ^; C; q山寨' z! d. t& j" T: `+ F1 ?
关于山寨币的整体走势，核心逻辑依然没变：当前市场行情走弱，叠加流动性匮乏、资金进场不足，直接导致山寨币陷入当前的低迷状态。也就是说，市场并非像部分人预期的那样已进入好行情，至少在我看来，“山寨季” 目前尚未到来，也没有出现的迹象。眼下的山寨币缺乏板块效应与热点带动，整体走势自然难以强势，但阶段性的交易机会仍可把握。! }* l5 e: \' y" ^/ A4 Z
若近期有埋伏或关注计划，核心重点建议放在 LINK，ENA 与 SOL 的走势上，可重点跟踪动向寻找机会
* C' Z" ~& W, z" v5 b1 n关于现在操作我们需要注意的点+ K( J& Z j; D
第一要素：求稳5 S9 ?: v7 _% F6 E7 D U
可以少赚点，因为钱你赚不完，但是亏得完。挑选币种也是一样，稳中求胜，一步一个脚印！
' K C7 I7 e7 V第二要素：修复性强4 S# i4 M* e( K7 _* l; O# j3 W
以太坊这几个月底部涨上来。但是很多山寨币还在低点。市场如战场，波动是常态，唯有以稳为基、以强为本，才能笑到最后！9 S; j. C; ]4 c: h; p
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