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[虚拟币交流]
鲸鱼从交易所撤出 2 万 BTC：这对比特币的反弹意味着什么（转）
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关键要点
5 r$ ~8 T* s! |4 s随着比特币已用量降至 52.9 万 BTC，比特币的卖方浪潮逐渐消退，与此同时，鲸鱼不断增持，交易所鲸鱼比例下降，净流量变为负值，为 -1.28 亿美元。如果卖方再次出现，11.2 万美元的价位还能守住吗？
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在达到 11.1 万美元的本地低点后，比特币[BTC]反弹至 117,421 美元，然后又回落至 115,411 美元的低点。4 G' {6 n: J: _% }2 v( k
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截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 115,601 美元，24 小时内上涨 2.45%，这表明上行压力正在增强。& o. O( y. Y/ n9 j
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但价格回升的背后原因是什么呢？
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比特币卖家潮逐渐消退
9 I8 \# O* w8 f9 X8 b据 CryptoQuant 报道分析师Axel Adler 表示，比特币的消费量（SMA-7d）急剧下降，每周平均值下滑至每天 529K BTC。* M/ B( i& u6 t, v( t1 ]. b
- L0 |+ Q5 M1 }- ?" t* R9 X如此大幅的下跌表明，当前价格水平的主要卖家浪潮已经枯竭，卖家在市场上退了一步。- j* p6 F- d5 g
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这主要是因为比特币近期表现惨淡导致出售动机减弱。
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事实上，已实现利润在各个群体中均有所下降。长期持有者仅获利 7.2 万 BTC，而短期持有者尽管出现反弹，也仅获利 1.8 万 BTC。
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鲸鱼从交易所撤走代币2 V/ R- i4 B6 T$ m6 e; i
随着比特币的波动，巨鲸已重新定位，减少了交易活动。) f4 _8 R& ^5 _) G3 R6 C/ t
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CryptoQuant 数据显示，交易所鲸鱼比率跌至 12 天低点 0.43。该指标下降表明，与整体流量相比，向交易所发送 BTC 的鲸鱼数量有所减少。
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通常情况下，这种下跌反映了大量的囤币行为，鲸鱼们会将比特币转移到私人钱包，而不是准备出售。这种情绪在比特币巨鲸中尤为普遍。4 E Z0 f2 ~" Q0 G! A# \
" q( Y( C/ {, r A根据 Checkonchain 的数据，持有量超过 1 万 BTC 的超级鲸鱼和交易所的余额变化为 -20.36 万 BTC，表明提现量大于存入量。大户持有者正在增持，而非抛售。0 ~. Z( ]5 {9 f9 _6 r
9 F' b, {. h& f$ K) q从历史上看，大股东在增持的同时减少抛售活动，往往预示着价格将面临更大的上行压力，而这往往是价格上涨的前兆。
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压力缓解能否提振BTC？
0 G( J0 l; h$ c- E9 C3 r根据AMBCrypto的分析，由于抛售压力下降而鲸鱼增持保持不变，比特币近期出现反弹。5 q6 A; c. Z) F! g
2 H' g4 J) F, E: ?结果，King Crypto 的净流量变为负值，达到 -1.28 亿美元的低点，这明显是积极增持的迹象。
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$ C8 Y1 q. F c话虽如此，如果鲸鱼继续吸收供应，比特币可能会收回 117,000 美元并测试 119,600 美元。
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9 Y) @' o+ s, T+ u# G然而，如果卖家回归，BTC 可能会重新测试 112,000 美元的支撑区域。; t' h# ] ]$ j" o, i5 t
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