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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
6 p8 J" e' V: }9 }Altcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
4 ~# u/ T# _9 C6 o4 G) `- u越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。" X& u' H% x9 F+ m" Z1 ~
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。4 a" I9 c9 a8 l0 l5 b/ W
从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。: ?1 \( _" R4 \0 ?8 ` V4 s2 I
alt/btc3 S: ~# |8 }5 D+ `9 A: F9 J: {4 C
alt/usdt
, Q- J2 ?% r2 P; i# S那么，发生了什么？+ Z& w/ `9 T% H
1. 大户轮换资金
" g5 {, j, |* w" F& ^与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。( U5 z2 x$ \# s9 n6 g( u' L
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。! K% U$ U2 l9 J! Q; ~0 ~# m
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。
# c5 T, B. G v! d$ A8 w" S2. 市场的防御心理/ t* j: y5 j, f* g8 V! k6 |7 P
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。! K3 P+ _; M- m6 l% K" `2 R5 g) C% i: S
这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。
/ B$ {$ `+ B' C7 S3. 需要关注的信号) r& i: p! P# {. ^
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。
* G# { S+ r1 O" H/ H, D山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。
/ K9 }3 X5 u7 S4 u4 RUSDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
- Y* P2 S# m X" O$ @1 i4. 对投资者的意义8 y" Z8 `5 w3 A* \2 g% d
在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。: ~2 S7 ]; _/ {; B
如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。! |1 P& J4 F' d& ^9 M
安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。0 d: i* |7 h7 Z" _7 H% f
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。
" F7 j9 W' n1 _/ ^. _* [. s#加密货币#6 G! N6 ]1 Y/ L3 e0 V* _- f* g( P
' A d0 B6 q, t1 C- j* @9 l |
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当前离线
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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