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[lastpost] => 2781939 数据：比特币在本周期中第四次出现“死亡交叉”，之后一年上涨概率为 50% 1763307127 比推快讯
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Bitunix 周度市场报告：宏观压力升温，市场情绪回到风险厌恶
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比推消息，本周市场焦点：随着美国政府停摆延后至 26 年 1 月 30 日的短暂安心感消散，加上大量延后的经济数据即将回归、使市场重新面对基本面真空的压力，美联储鹰派信号引发的全球抛售成为本周最核心风向。美股动能板块震荡加剧，加密市场则在风险厌恶下遭遇更强卖压，比特币跌破 95,000 美元，回吐 10 月创高后的涨幅。
与此同时，本周市场资金明显转向防御：美债收益率小幅回升至 4.15%，但美元指数未能站上 100 关口，显示市场在缺乏关键数据下维持观望。加密市场则因清算连锁效应延续 10 月 10 日的大规模去杠杆，市场历经超过 1,900 亿美元清算后，整体部位调整压力仍重。ETF 与期货部位偏向撤退、杠杆降温，风险偏好暂时回到保守。
下周市场展望：
下周市场的基调将被大量延后数据回归主导。停摆后首份非农、工厂订单、营建支出、实际收入等一系列延误报告将集中公布，成为左右 12 月降息预期的关键催化。此外，美联储官员密集发言——威廉姆斯、卡什卡利、古尔斯比、洛根等核心票委都将登场，可能进一步撼动利率预期。
Bitunix 分析师观点：
当前市场核心不是 Beta，而是宏观资讯真空下的定价混乱。BTC 正处于月线结构回测期，在大量延后数据回归前，市场难有明确方向。下周美国数据若偏弱，将有助于缓解风险厌恶，甚至启动下一段反弹周期。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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