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[lastpost] => 2785545 山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转） 1764505039 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。9 X M8 i" Q. Q0 `0 b2 x
5 W7 L$ ^+ _; ]( L% q根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。 n% g: ]" j3 O1 S
0 D B% s! [/ z上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。- c- n/ j" ] s6 n
5 E+ {; I l4 n* {# }' l4 d当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。) Q: c3 t( [& C) _) [4 S; m- x
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山寨币季节性指数
$ f/ Q: P) |1 M# N7 V" d% v资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。1 H" s1 f# N7 c* K
& p7 O& e5 t, ]1 J此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。
- t- y! `8 H- r3 H' M2 R/ M4 l: i: I3 Q2 v: ^' j! J
山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。# K) g ~# w5 i1 o
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当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。6 U; A8 h/ l- H9 J
8 @& q, Z l! ^
根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。
0 N% Z- u9 a% d4 f4 z; j% I! f. _# ~& c6 ~7 |) B' |2 d/ q! e
然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。
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链上活动仍然至关重要
3 F' n3 E0 E2 G- |- @0 F虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。5 o$ P5 \1 t2 i# P. {- }" @( F4 P
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这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。
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6 I6 e- a2 y% P# z, o* U! kTVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。
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目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。
, w- p5 C n, v. x, A7 h2 n
* U# i& Q( P F) q+ q( G" F7 {此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。
0 c5 K. e# ^; p
1 F4 n* S" S* [& ?. k: u比特币与山寨币的去相关性
3 v1 G4 v5 Y, p! M/ i7 L( k$ q0 C- i比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。
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当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。7 U+ f7 j" k" {4 N/ Q
5 D" s, [1 I# [+ K3 L对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。5 O R8 u" t/ {( c7 u) I
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这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。- A: M$ B! G7 v1 c: g/ h, j
7 c1 l6 l4 H9 ^/ E7 S从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。
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5 \& q" s. U! @$ y2 k. x最后想说的话
; a4 X# `2 S- s+ l: v+ c7 d目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。
& l$ u' d& w2 [( n; ~3 Y+ f Y5 Y经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。9 v% z" D% p/ p+ ^* @/ h% O Z! e( Y
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