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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报：市场修复整理,与美股逐渐脱钩
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市场观点
Y+ _% v' B! @) c2 P1、宏观流动性 ' ?0 n# ~8 O, o- h6 m1 q: x6 t
货币流动性整体紧缩。美联储6月1日开始缩表，符合市场预期。美联储暂时放弃了75基点的加息，并暗示其鹰派立场或在Q4暂停，风险资产因此走强。但拜登与鲍威尔的近期会面，打消了9月马上暂缓加息的市场猜测。似乎中期选举年美国选民关心的通货膨胀的核心问题是能源和食品（俄乌战争，疫情下的供应链等），而不是风险资产。BTC先于美股触底，但反弹落后，可能与传统资本优先进入流动性更好的美股有关。 5 z6 `% a0 A$ K* j
; J6 ~' [ u& k# u, j. O8 X+ n2、链上指标
1 u' ^2 A8 C: E0 U链上数据显示，BTC盈利地址数创22个月新低，盈利地址数占比为59%，回到了熊市期间的水平（熊市底部为40%左右）。而在2021年11月初，99%的非零地址都能处于盈利状态，此后盈利地址数占比开始下滑。进入5月后下滑开始加速，这意味着目前的市场越来越难获取利润。
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稳定币的总供应量在过去一个月减少300亿美元，这是历史上此类货币的最大降幅。包括USDT、USDC、BUSD、DAI等在内稳定币的供应量在5月份下降了6%，降至1600亿美元。
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3、BTC长期市场指标
; E& w, k/ }* B长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据，反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时，是顶部区间；当指标小于2时，是底部区间。当前指标为0.4，可见目前虽未到历史大底，但依然在低位。 ; e- f0 |% N( o* J% l
: u' z1 q( [$ i. D! M动量指标RSI用于衡量近期价格变化相对强弱，超过70为超买，低于30为超卖。50日均值近期为35，已开始触底回升。参考2018年最低点29，20年312时40，21年7月38，表明底部逐渐形成。 " q1 N8 K4 s7 T- M
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4、BTC短期市场指标
7 A1 M6 h, G. Z2 A$ c8 F% w+ B8 D期货资金费率：资金费率维持在0附近，比较正常。费率0.05-0.1%，多头杠杆较多，是市场短期顶部；费率-0.1-0%，空头杠杆较多，是市场短期底部。本周资金费率终于结束了大规模的看多情绪，刚刚转入到看空。
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期货多空比：1.4。多空比数据波动较大，参考意义有所削弱。
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