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[lastpost] => 2765261 杠杆推动波动,投资者大举押注比特币(转) 1757741741 小钱儿
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势 C" V1 r4 u4 k+ O4 I l
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。, D+ h$ G5 v$ j# w2 s
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。# T) k; Q+ d+ @5 B7 h* }
( T4 a8 u6 X2 [" i3 t5 tCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:7 u% I7 s5 T" d
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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- L; }6 H3 i' w7 W7 n {微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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+ W2 o3 S+ T6 NETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。# e/ P7 e- s$ M1 W9 b' {/ b
& B! N7 Z8 O0 Y: B/ y6 S1 Y ~比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。- ]/ q7 g( U- T
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。+ L8 M% Q5 U: X) {
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。* H5 F0 o( Y6 [1 R1 Q8 G
" h3 z% ~* Y5 O' h' Y% v3. 市场热点与反弹情况9 I$ [# T$ i" P% E- U2 f% R
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ETH:. f8 x7 s2 L0 L6 J i
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。+ ~4 X2 F8 z- A* s r+ }) Q; K
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。4 G! i3 J4 v; _0 R9 t8 d
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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; U2 f) m7 M' C' \# tSOL与XRP:/ ~- w4 C9 |3 k- t& C& ]
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。# q6 ^5 O' s0 N' Z
' _4 ?' v- A5 p& {XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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; E' A- S# G0 h$ G6 ]; G其他热点项目:$ B- G* E( N% v0 k9 ^
- w$ ?& W2 d j' ?) ^涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。' @6 P o, W& I; R" U
' Y. ~% q, _+ h$ f1 U# ~山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。" |" J- O1 b4 E, C0 m2 s
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目6 H! |9 A x" w1 R3 e0 X9 `
; W/ y# _# P. f# b0 h# V+ `8 u. wAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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2 ?% ~4 J0 u8 O, `1 |* K新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。$ J* w J4 `7 @: J8 O8 G
. S5 z( j. X2 g" _& @市场展望
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4 }, }: t* \! X6 c5 Q随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。2 y: g# }/ D4 B6 R7 R9 f
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