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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。 L; L+ O, L3 k# V0 k
5 n+ g- s3 I6 O9 a2 R9 {* `3 ^Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”5 g0 C8 [3 [; t. `; x# H2 o
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Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。
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4 p3 d5 }, I! w* ]9 Y( v2 s8 t0 @Park 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。# ^6 C7 y, |( Y, X( l2 ^
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Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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. o J$ z1 |5 @) Z" [1 S“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率2 ~9 R8 p; e6 P1 E b( ]
" q- g7 x0 z* I2 t. _9 v8 a低于当前水平的天数百分比。 k# }8 q) _+ T \
9 P0 `: w& |2 l4 O( Q9 q7 f根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。" e# e& K/ Q2 l" t4 r |! e/ p5 s5 P* C! b
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据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。- Y" z. f" z6 M3 f
$ k a: s8 U4 Y3 X& F! o3 _1 C今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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