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[lastpost] => 2749907 链上指标:比特币能否突破13万美元大关?(转) 1752740923 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
$ x5 t* o; q$ F6 l尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
: ]/ m3 T: h4 h8 c# d过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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- v0 Q$ }* x7 c( i" h5 h其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。$ Q; L* j' e* z& D4 G9 u* H1 H
2 r) v2 \/ k" ]0 \: Y' rAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:3 }5 V/ Z" \4 l5 b$ F w
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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8 s/ F* e8 T9 D+ f$ `% b7 K9 O9 ~* B4 G平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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% ^1 t& D. z* f, i因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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BTC 图表暗示了什么0 H0 }% w$ N# a6 {. t+ B) d+ c- u
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。6 t$ N$ E& z! X& ^9 _% f- u6 R
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。, X1 ^- }3 R# X6 I& p
# p5 F' }. @" p从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。( d+ s3 [8 v& U5 I1 Z
. V' u0 c7 h# `' O) z8 R6 o比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。' t" ]6 W% W& M
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。# h1 U/ ]6 P4 |: N0 V0 h) P" `
- ]# s; ^) n2 X8 ]最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。. {1 V' i5 d. B9 a
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最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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3 V5 ?( M" C( r, Y+ Q. B( }8 G8 J截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。8 }# q$ j Q( F W, `/ ~; ^
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简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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) J7 }3 v8 v- L# \: @! ]如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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