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[lastpost] => 2782180 比特币价格较历史最高点下跌 25%：加密货币真的进入熊市了吗？（转） 1763386867 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索（转）
[复制链接]
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。" R# N/ q. ]2 Z
矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩，5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。1 a6 J4 Z0 x/ ?3 k$ d, P
这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。8 w" H9 B l2 R- T
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价格虽然强劲，但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动，就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅，跌回六位数以下。" n& K2 B% T* z. \. m" t3 J& }4 N& `
0 s3 \1 w/ t$ B7 p风险如此之大，谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同，有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格，这为他们带来了巨额利润。; T/ |- U. M* w. A$ J7 y
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从历史上看，矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么，在市场观望的同时，我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股？7 g: v2 x1 @5 c; n, R; @
3 g+ O/ Z, [; y3 M6 I& T减半后的挖矿经济3 a2 k: B$ O( [1 [, u8 O1 l
2024 年 4 月减半之后，矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC，这给他们带来了沉重打击。
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问题是，虽然奖励每四年减半，但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样，但每个区块的收益却只有一半。% ~; B- R, z' r$ u
$ u- `" Q1 d% A) ]) s自然，这导致平均采矿成本飙升。( f {8 i8 q, Q6 |8 `. j
5 z0 `1 O8 n9 b/ Y! Z到4月底，比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元，而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环，市场陷入了窄幅震荡。# W' F0 G& B( f7 N2 M3 ?8 J
* c3 ]3 \" \2 b/ s' @- Q4 r为什么？因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略：储备枯竭，比特币市场陷入低迷，矿工收入开始减少。
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7 U$ x" i W: O9 ?2 c6 t- v换句话说，不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率（BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本）进一步受到挤压之前退出，加速全面矿工投降阶段。0 N1 l: W8 w% L5 S. }! F
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比特币市场陷入困境，矿工竞相前进
+ z+ j# G1 q) f' r. Y. h4 s6 C距离第四次减半还有一年，开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右，而比特币市场一直横盘整理，BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。/ I8 N9 ]+ E9 t6 ^3 O
2 C$ x9 K' n O+ O确实，比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%，甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。
' j- f5 g; ` e4 L% {/ T6 r& @, ~% n: A# v
但如果我们继续计分的话，矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。/ k" @) ?- |+ c2 H1 N: O
( K3 C) P8 Z2 M$ E+ R, y$ {2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。0 h, G% u% W/ \' b" M4 Y: U, L
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据 The Block 报道，矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入，其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。
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, ~1 V: V& h" G1 E5 Y# ]& t话虽如此，早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数（MPI）已回升至零以上，暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。' S$ }: R' i# }5 W
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从历史上看，大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前，尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。
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) ~; t% V; n0 R, F& |1 z# \/ p这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间，一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。
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8 M% W! S; N) ]8 J8 ~2 J$ E这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索？这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。$ j/ J3 n: V1 x% ]
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索？
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