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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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, q% ]/ N9 O4 @5 e' u/ G1 J但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。' F: I3 G+ F$ P; ]0 i7 c
, M ~% {6 `$ U: k9 KUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？, E8 L3 q. j8 k
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
. |* D6 k/ O4 _9 \2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。' ^. c3 K& z. X5 @# K: {
2 i, c# ?: ^* ~$ Q来源：Alphractal
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( R% |6 B+ F( s7 b15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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& n$ a4 F3 p. ?/ v# Q1 C3 i尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。- n& G; {1 ^6 G' F3 N. I
* N7 W4 D& Q* w: J. |, |事情变得有趣了& k W. y4 s1 M9 z" D$ `
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。0 p: ]) G I" U0 B6 `1 S. G
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来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。$ K3 Q: S4 q; Y4 x( Z3 L$ C8 H- |
- D% r% c0 J! x" _2 Z6 T# }" r2 @BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。$ y. \9 {8 r; H4 i! x/ X" f
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。2 d4 S' @$ m; S. B
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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& K8 A, R! A0 X空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力& z6 w8 G t. ?+ H+ x% Z# ^
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。3 a0 N$ c8 p! a4 B1 o0 B3 b
2 b( l4 _: o8 B0 h5 \来源：TradingView( I# X( M: J# z; e1 D! M
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。3 u- ~, d8 t6 j
! m( i$ p+ Z0 |9 s( x1 m, N/ i然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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