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[lastpost] => 2796892 21Shares为何押注比特币和黄金的相关性转正而同时上涨？（转） 1768339084 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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D+ k: t: L$ k3 ZUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
: \( I8 g6 x+ W4 ]2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。" H. i/ K$ N1 G- U, N
2 @- z/ ~3 J3 W! P, h7 [5 \6 _& V来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。4 i, z% \% S1 n$ L0 C
! ^4 U. v9 H. r9 m) c% r" J尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。7 {/ ?8 a% I! @/ @! f8 M
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事情变得有趣了5 J: Z1 R4 K, o- q
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。" r/ ]- j( G% i' v6 I3 [
1 G% [4 v/ x1 X4 U4 r来源：X' u4 d4 b4 N2 Z3 ]1 t4 V4 k4 |
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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h3 u9 r* m! m# r" i9 L& @BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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/ [5 y5 ]9 J; s) L正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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" k; E z4 v u0 ?空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
9 K, o0 k. {- E t. I/ ~% M经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。4 D3 n- g9 D6 m8 n8 n" X
3 Q1 I+ _8 ~/ e5 n0 U4 u来源：TradingView/ a- v' v4 R9 k5 n* ]9 A4 e
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。, e& @% x9 r5 Y, T( p
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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