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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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3 ?/ o7 ^" i. G$ ]但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。! j. Q6 Z2 P! f, c& ~( c6 C
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？, x# z0 a1 N( T' ?
) B7 O) j! x) _开局艰难，但历史看好牛市) A! w/ b% @. v8 ^0 Y
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。& w. D; I% G2 P' P0 P' {, W
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来源：Alphractal# L2 r# t9 Z; v
" i. D- r' t# H: G5 J! O( J- {3 Y! D15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。! a6 j# N8 v0 ^$ }+ f
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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( G6 B2 f7 w" \( ^1 o* `事情变得有趣了
) p" ^/ m3 Y) K0 R4 fBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。3 J4 E) ~- I2 I: n% _% d) m
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来源：X$ t2 M! D- `) P% J
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。3 c4 D Z6 \ K% i3 M
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。. {. R% y$ I, | f2 C% m4 C4 {& U
+ N3 \0 k7 ?$ t6 V正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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8 d; q0 l/ Q8 X9 ?/ n, g随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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3 E1 |$ l8 V, P空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力0 I: M' g# G0 v
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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2 \) `5 C7 T( o" a" e% R来源：TradingView
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/ A' r: r0 E! c6 e5 }. K日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。8 d6 a' T3 x3 N8 c
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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