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[lastpost] => 2751764 为什么大多数交易者在 ETH/BTC 突破时错过最大波动(转) 1753368649 人生如赌
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BCA Research表示,投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑,而这可能对比特币构成利好。- {, [) d- {& {4 L8 E* l% N% ?6 j& v7 z
1 c) } X# R( e5 V4 y 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出,目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产,并在股票投资中降低对美国, t1 D& C- M# x- J1 x5 ~& ]3 Y
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市场的权重。原因在于,海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产,担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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与此同时,BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围,并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月,BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而+ l0 {" d& S3 I7 B, S- { m0 W# c: I
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“短期看空”比特币。% m2 _3 `; @$ o: b* e6 Z
( h7 _: q4 f5 _0 w9 ~) Y* { “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下,比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道,“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来,活跃交易的比特币在整体已, D1 v# v: j. |( i/ B" w! j8 [
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实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”' b- @5 k- z9 F. A/ B/ c
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报告还指出,比特币作为“数字黄金”,正越来越像实物黄金那样表现,在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
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# G+ t) n) z( B3 v- t9 }6 F 根据Coin Metrics的数据,自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期,现货黄金上涨了8%,0 W1 k8 F3 W' N, w) l
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而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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BCA在报告中进一步指出:“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺,但关税政策的模糊性,已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外,“激烈的
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+ \0 [- N8 K2 L6 C$ o4 `' T: R9 X# v利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”
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8 C5 O! c! c6 _* k; ~ “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛,但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号,才能恢复投资。”报告写道,“若无法及时提供清晰政策,& Z0 `' _; Z/ K) ~0 E5 g% I% h, i
2 |2 D& g6 ~: F1 B7 H1 V# I3 }将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”0 T* C: ^3 s; D
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