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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。/ A, }% m1 h; T7 K4 T
+ Y. N2 Q$ t Q( I" W+ [ 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而
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“短期看空”比特币。! \+ s1 Y5 l( a* O6 u" h
1 o/ o: [/ I; j$ P& o, M7 x “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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. o9 [! D5 M) {1 i8 P7 I实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
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! O% z( f; I4 }/ M7 n* x3 A 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。" b6 ^, I" [5 d8 o4 N
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，( r8 r- o/ k: q
7 b% t1 Z- A0 n" \$ r: z而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。3 u0 o) [: a8 O5 \" R6 M0 \( `7 x
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的1 N8 e3 f4 o* w' Q) I5 a
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”; T* x& |+ x8 S, F1 J
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
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3 h& c0 J* I6 f将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”) w9 o& i6 b) m4 Z+ L8 ]: D Z
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