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8 h. q0 `: G, }1 Y( C% [* ^, I: E2 [加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为- j; y" ~. z: b0 o
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
+ w, o# O6 P/ P7 ] f5 J衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
! L) Y5 T1 t* j1 l一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
: x( p& Q5 L' h, bBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
8 e. Y: {; b0 j* N4 lPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
) e1 r" p& c5 @1 r, I7 A2024年4月第四次减半/ @# e& g. \& H( c
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
/ H8 n5 a, Z4 d$ @. X可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock), K2 x6 u1 w$ h
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
; P5 d. L# ^3 e二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
0 O( p; ?2 S4 U' Dfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
& U% _( i( p& F' VPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
& R0 P7 F2 e$ C+ R/ B1 t1 s. ^! ~. N诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
9 k) }) }! ^# {3 ]& p三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
7 C2 f i6 b/ a$ G( v. t2 c除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统 N- T" e5 i- H' p t7 w+ g
金融(TradFi)产品。
& ]: w1 ], |& ^- i- }; I& J3 g如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
S. B7 ]$ O: G. v6 ?7 O: M4 W3 B; D链桥」的项目。
7 G' F: P# r |* a四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
, c' u1 _2 @0 d* u5 Z2 R模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
" M f3 N4 Y/ u$ b" i8 i( o5 g, u |等。
, g% l* d& T7 Q( Y1 DPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用6 U! h' W6 ^, w. |5 F
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。: m D4 j2 m+ r2 X( ^
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN' [: q% d7 Q2 i$ N
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
: l/ k1 W3 B. J0 ]( J数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。; W$ ]% U# X u- Y" s5 Y# U
Pantera点名了几个项目：! \/ F0 U0 C( Z# {6 B0 S! O0 s
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
1 s# u9 U$ @- `Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台5 ?1 i) M: e F, x, r
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
. Y) E, d, \8 v I TThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划4 X7 F2 E' h: x7 _5 T: b6 b5 ]& p7 p
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
, C# R+ Q5 s! Y. r& R六、小型公链需专注特定应用
( |# O8 D4 Z0 P! C+ y, b: LPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
- ~' j. N4 X6 Q* ?5 z$ T: x至能直接与L2竞争。
# `8 _0 z* H6 V' c2 W也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。3 y0 b: B6 s6 N0 j+ H7 t4 k+ V
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
8 I8 T3 I& A" C" t6 {成为「应用链」。
9 y' a2 ~& x3 E& a0 {0 V4 o事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
1 s o4 @6 n8 H$ _0 v2 h8 x6 A: I9 F8 d9 Y% e
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