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[lastpost] => 2796758 比特币：为什么机构而非散户将决定比特币的下一步走势（转） 1768309639 22301
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/ t( n3 J. V1 D5 W3 ?加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为4 {' D9 n6 y/ _% z+ U6 Y* I
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
+ W: a0 W2 F+ K6 D! c6 N8 I衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
# p$ h6 U2 m0 e/ s3 n1 k# }- p一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
+ X' I2 h9 G% y$ aBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
6 k0 Q7 m+ V {$ F9 {- \2 k: TPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：1 l+ S1 k3 n& u# |/ L0 W- p/ l/ b
2024年4月第四次减半
4 N* J. L8 S# @8 ]- h机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF j. J- P/ Y7 @* y
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
( l& F2 ^$ o" V# j+ u针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。3 x* Y# E/ O2 ]6 a4 U2 V" k
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务3 U8 s# Z3 u, v. w0 \6 E
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。9 G5 B$ x ]7 F- j- |# ~
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
8 k1 X: I: U5 o诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。2 e2 t3 _2 G2 ~; q. D
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁, ^6 Q* [/ ?- z1 r1 F" Q; K
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统. Q% U: b; h2 B( }- _
金融(TradFi)产品。4 ^1 u0 H, X3 Y( g
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨# O) Z% s- X; x, X2 M3 M$ c
链桥」的项目。9 V. D# F* [1 Z' g, n* a: X O7 m
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
+ R% q" v- k' ^- O2 K5 d模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
6 M6 w5 t9 B, J4 s1 h' p等。
& j+ S% y: \/ d2 r+ HPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用- V. z. X, p* L) R( _
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
' ]; B- x3 H! s五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN+ g; X2 e7 C- K& m
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位- R$ d5 y7 |- }3 a8 v2 @% p
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
0 \/ A3 K+ I; x, dPantera点名了几个项目：; e) s( _; @1 s0 o- p9 |# m
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图7 c. z% d* W+ E/ i( Q1 X* q* r9 L
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
* d5 p2 w* L B. e XModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
5 Q# x% t" |( ZThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划5 l1 j' `+ s* F4 f& @' [5 s* s
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
3 a: F4 Z9 I; f& A+ N六、小型公链需专注特定应用
) k8 f3 R/ i4 E3 W; WPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚0 j, ?; s4 X- ?* r0 k
至能直接与L2竞争。
/ k0 d8 |, m& p8 [' J) l# G* \4 x& R也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
" Q. C$ M* @" X) J! H* QPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地! \0 ^, a% d: L* a& {" J% l( h
成为「应用链」。
0 @, o8 }3 F% ^' O( K事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
$ E0 Q) G1 U6 ]; U# g% c# ?9 L/ H3 l$ b7 Y6 J
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