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0 e p" c' W; f9 K3 X6 ^" ~3 I) e
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为% J0 G0 L8 P* l$ v, G; ~' R
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
' |8 _; y) |; H. t' Y5 J5 e衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
( w- p5 w8 o/ P9 u- B3 R& ^1 H一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
% L: N3 b1 J$ ?3 @BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。( ?" P) L& v, w/ w# ^& x. o
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：3 L% n! a, N, |" n
2024年4月第四次减半" h: N; L3 c0 T3 `& j' F' ^
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF, w! i' d# a# i7 H% |
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
r1 S- `, x9 `/ a针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。2 D9 l, ~# _' Y7 B3 |7 ?0 v3 _6 Q
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务- L; P) Q' v& l. Y' ^
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
% t4 t4 s, z0 n4 [# k7 s; I" k2 |Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
0 R" W( y# E; R诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。: n a4 O# a F# Q: I
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁5 t! V6 K; z/ R, U& h, ]+ q( f4 s
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
8 J$ h$ |/ ]( W1 Z5 g& `金融(TradFi)产品。
! d; z" W; f6 z如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨: L" P8 h' y: o1 Z" ?5 a6 ^& w
链桥」的项目。# |8 |0 j7 c; `5 p- {% a+ ^1 e4 @
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉7 l1 y% q3 o* x
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
- s6 P5 a& @6 l等。& a, i( F+ s4 F: y( i
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
, E7 ^6 ~* c3 z3 U9 S% L& ~在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
; `9 ]+ L4 X/ v! p& j五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
# ]2 l4 W4 J' {; P* t rPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
3 {, n9 r. Y% z# z数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
, m+ E* V; E6 C$ jPantera点名了几个项目：
$ J6 \- P: b4 T. `$ GHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图' {/ z% F) e8 {. R d8 b
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台# ~$ G2 {9 V3 k
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品. m- u$ n/ Y S: R
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
+ S6 N q: x H. XRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游7 Q- d5 S3 z4 c2 [+ b$ D9 [6 |
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
8 r! T! Q, a$ p0 q: LPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
6 K8 \; C. E5 R至能直接与L2竞争。
0 d6 k- [6 c) [ b" K- G也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。$ d3 r ]4 c! u- E$ }. T
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
" Y* e7 v' o3 C0 k7 p' B( A+ J# t成为「应用链」。. [. t4 `7 a/ D& P% r( {1 P
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
& h, K1 |$ w1 {5 }; Q) k+ h, U5 u- M, Q2 N$ u* ^& L
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