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[lastpost] => 2746906 富达投资抢购了 1% 的比特币，因机构投资者购买激增（转） 1752802014 jackcool1011
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。) B& ]! e7 b% R2 P8 i; \5 ^0 ]: [
$ \6 G$ G% H: C: A7 j1 S& I9 C9 Q瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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# w( U) k5 ?) Y8 ~3 x! _+ Y2 d% j衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”% o1 \% a3 k7 \6 F
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。# c% H: a3 O& r
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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: U' A1 s1 k5 u. l2 p率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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7 u5 {( Q7 w4 S" a1 F然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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! O- B5 d: V9 s: S& F4 n0 }长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。: B, h$ w% O/ a# R" J8 ~
) m5 E; {+ ]1 F. V4 A9 R历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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/ u" o$ j/ [' Q" X% C特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了： R" L- `+ {; R3 t" M. M/ s: O. p
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。 E" w' n+ p/ g
8 V, c- M+ y6 \2 W周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债* h) v! L3 s8 f
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收益率冲高回落。
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5 M; R+ V r6 N, S# Q9 p. X& f2 S周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。3 _, v. l. f- M$ V- k: P* w4 S
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，; J/ x1 l. [* A5 j5 h( T
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"6 T/ m& h, |( g2 S
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。9 r6 G G4 @+ B3 C7 u
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0 y1 }4 \7 t+ U4 M; u6 SRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"$ ^$ r5 P! q0 c' r9 q# w8 r
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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