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[lastpost] => 2784858 分析师警告——比特币不太可能在2025年出现“圣诞行情”（转） 1764251514 jackcool1011
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心% W% o! W4 z& P6 E7 J* Q! f
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”3 ~6 f5 A$ l r7 c% b
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金8 [+ G- K! S+ K- }
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益5 J- z6 k. Q: o: Y& q+ m2 d6 m4 ~
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。4 w3 f& u) b# P- ?# \: i9 u
6 H1 _) I: b, P6 {4 A }9 ] g然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国; }" a! G3 T5 n$ O2 o4 W
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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4 E4 M1 t6 Y) Z8 `是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。! c2 ~( H, j* | D- E7 z O. V
& ^) m# g6 G+ h6 b1 D7 O* M, Y0 I历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币0 ~( N ^% v) k% v- h
# P5 A' t; c8 V7 r特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史, ~7 T m: [ k3 M X& l+ C
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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7 f0 j6 l Q: Y/ }# t周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。6 X5 \, O( t& z4 H! l
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。# |. z. {7 j5 ?+ x6 V
9 D s- E4 c1 {$ a) \2 \. e周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。* y" c6 i7 L2 @: q9 y
* s; Q! r3 ^ [3 O3 X3 q. W, b周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，8 w4 [5 G: C# O& }& f/ H* t
/ K- F: V& C i; {; v& i0 w是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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! e0 I8 b* z3 d$ T1 Q- _年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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# _" d' |# b+ e8 o) }Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"; n% y* d% }" _
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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