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[lastpost] => 2750105 狗狗币DOGE价格行情预测（转） 1752803608 sunnyclare001
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心# R8 ~) Z; S2 a4 z7 B4 \
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
) { ?; k5 H' b# C8 T/ |3 L美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金3 @; O6 W5 }7 l v/ m
" y! C* K7 ~& q: Y" [6 E) h [融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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) ?7 Q, o/ b0 n! u5 G9 M& F过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益' k, w& G$ E$ Q
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。3 N& r8 @- O7 D0 D
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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8 G5 |8 [! ^; o3 B长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更. b4 F q& V5 N9 @ A
, G/ d. b, ~! x2 Z. l% s/ y是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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0 _& R* Q% t; H3 k1 o标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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" a! Y; p4 @9 ~2 c, }5 B, Q周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。* f$ _: r9 e) J3 j
, a, M' p" ?3 f周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。 W8 F2 c* L G1 J2 @; {$ `! v
- ^7 A$ A0 X* s( n$ s周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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7 T7 O5 d6 g: @2 B2 q. R9 X收益率冲高回落。
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6 H+ G+ @( k+ N& Q周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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( g1 G; c1 B8 n& P8 W周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。" A* o$ i5 b: y3 w. Y( z
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& U5 N# P( [ o+ v, DLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，) D# C/ u! n( g5 N2 L& l
6 G/ J+ {7 q2 S |4 u5 K5 X t: }/ q是的，这正是我们所看到的。" \, B* d$ p% u5 Y
& O% W& y% N6 V( C0 v根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。: L" T% ^7 P6 w
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0 ]/ T& D0 P3 N$ Y& Z0 K bRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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