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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 2 ?5 Y: M0 Q& p/ P4 K$ ^

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只跟踪一个联赛. J; u8 F7 |  _2 c' D6 c
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5 Z' r/ v, Y# A. T全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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# i5 C& r+ o) R# F( m三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）" j- V& S9 ^! N& t% _! I
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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& y+ H' `" l2 z' h$ a5 s: l! p就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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& X6 m9 r8 _, r( S) ?$ {/ L当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。# E' F. W7 y& Q" j1 t! D' A% o

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，- \: @' H' n/ O5 }" d

% `! w# X0 P# O2 r7 R; ]但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，0 z6 g+ y' D7 R

( @0 I$ @8 I; K: O% |$ w& F- ]这比买国债存银行合算。
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1 Z$ c( o4 B) x3 x; K) M在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，  k' G* z, N) u0 D, c- I' J; G

" V/ K* j4 C0 t* {0 n几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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" {8 f5 T2 B& o/ \' O# d8 D8 ~常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。. W  C" s2 c4 n8 c5 m" N
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，/ o1 U* w7 q" n& Z

& b* k. Y& H  r3 |$ |3 e5 g. Y就是回避了大的亏损，9 L4 e# i; }+ H( S6 s
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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! E- l# k  v% Q) u7 a' A: x回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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