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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔% @. z* Q( i9 P7 \: q4 Z
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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# W- ?( M/ t7 I! [偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。, ~1 Y  l2 Z" n2 c/ f, D
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）" P- ?( k; a4 j" ?

1 z# S9 j/ X$ V/ r/ O* m" e3 T然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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: v4 k7 L4 _+ d8 l& j; o4 s当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目# ?3 `1 k4 e. V6 }/ C; `/ L

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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) M! _, w. M) n! R6 c4 m* ^7 s1 ]而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，4 P1 T8 A/ |* A$ t- m
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。& Q% Y7 u' j" }
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/ m0 V/ X% p$ p! R" Q理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，' f# f* g( E% U( W- O

1 v. a( Q/ U7 ~# o, i但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，& ]5 [  T9 A( Q  y& j* F

' k0 p2 P/ Q! N1 q2 e2 x这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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+ H) k3 y; n' b0 c& c1 S5 _几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。" ?+ k% C" ~! C  r1 ?! f  T5 @

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。7 Z7 U1 j7 K$ X/ G& ^0 w* B

: f3 D5 m, y+ M% I# o7 i放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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# w8 ?! Y! c' D" X& C就是回避了大的亏损，2 ?4 r: j& ?& i) Y

4 @; y; d- R/ r! W! n4 G" E6 s* }1 A大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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