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[虚拟币交流]
Ripple加入ISDA会员！XRP目标价1896美元？（转载）
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支付网络公司Ripple近期加入了ISDA会员，有人乐观预估其币价会上看1,898美元。
, B0 T% u; m; n) x9 S/ f$ eISDA有何重要性？真的对XRP币价有如此深远的影响吗？
) S0 w; i7 w3 d0 y4 X7 _" @什么是ISDA？
, W3 Z# i) V2 Q2 N# y: H. F+ Q/ o: O国际交换兼衍生性商品协会(International Swaps and Derivatives Association，ISDA)为总部位于美国纽约的非
# _" c" v7 q" W; n营利性组织，成立于1985年。银行或金融交易对手若要承作衍生性金融商品，都会预先签订所谓的ISDA主契约8 L( R" X- K& T" x7 R7 d
(master agreement)，这个由ISDA设计，目前广为世界各金融中心所沿用的法律契约，其主要功能在于规范交易
2 F6 ~# t& `6 _% h, g+ J5 d双方的法律风险及信用风险，并且通过中立的角色，设计出公平的法律条款，使双方的交易成本降低，有助于市
5 P( m, V% l$ ^1 d场的正常发展。
; X6 d( g1 o6 C. |换句话说，要跟全球的金融机构交易衍生性商品，就必需加入ISDA。
1 T# G/ z1 F& ^; q进入ISDA的数字资产会员名单，目前仅有16名会员，其中大家比较熟悉的还包括Crypto.com、Algorand和
x/ d$ n2 B' N$ s K. g% r5 a; _$ }Digital Asset。! s5 r; U* ]8 g* U. E5 i
加入ISDA，XRP目标价1,896美元？
" @: N6 i! Q8 W/ ]Digital Perspectives PermaBull的推文引发了一系列讨论。他强调了Ripple与ISDA的合作对XRP价格的潜在影1 w! n9 x# a4 |$ j" J+ N* e
响，其中引用了Mr.Man的推算法，若Ripple能获得主流的采用，将使其币价来到1,896美元。
i1 ?0 `! W8 s" Z# r& J根据其推论：
" [8 f2 h& g8 K! t2 J现今全球衍生性商品总市值为1,000兆美元& C0 ^% i& H7 P- |9 U' c
若Ripple能协助处理其中10%的交易量，也就是100兆美元 ?) f: P! o8 b6 D0 y
XRP目前总市值为349亿美元8 Z, B2 Q8 ^% H
需成长2,865倍才能达到100兆美元
; o" ~# s! b" l0 T' o$ j5 c而XRP目前币价为0.661742
* V% c2 D7 V$ ~ @& G9 n0.661742*2865=1,896.23美元
3 m. w# x8 J- K1 s% c挟带ISO和ISDA的优势引导传统金融的采用？
# K1 Y/ O7 V. x不过观察XRP近期的走势，仅有在七月中因与SEC的诉讼案传出好消息而一度大涨99%，之后币价逐渐回落后似乎: @# X8 Z+ {& }6 Q# ?! O9 \$ z
也未有极大的波动。: l/ U( r5 L! ], M
而上述的论点仅基于简单的假设和推论，比方说10%的交易量，是来自传统金融产业想利用区块链技术进行衍生
; i+ m8 t D: ?性金融商品交易？交易量和市值的关系应该也不是如此直观而直接。但随着Ripple和SEC的诉讼案逐渐明朗，这1 ?( Z& w: h. R7 m6 f4 e& M% M( p
个早期加入区块链的支付公司，是否有机会利用其XRP Ledger的底层技术，挟带ISO20022和ISDA的优势，慢慢
$ y# F& J3 C; G5 u引导传统金融的采用呢？
" i/ L8 k" r* v3 I* K4 b0 F
4 @* B- v" j, v m; @ |
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