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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
4 L }3 r {6 _/ l+ w8 a6 n余勋也不例外、
, k% \& Y3 f' F7 m1 ~& w F" ]其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ! u2 m3 }& M1 W
是保经济的重要决策！
m+ j3 n; g! G这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 % G" n+ S! j% C; L+ j7 q% |0 u
低点26700-32400、
; |$ v8 B4 `* B8 ]$ r反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 8 c: t; h5 U% [& G- C* X
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
: f+ s* t5 E& z& L& E大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ( M% F. o( o: P
涨幅就已回撤过半！ * V& Q$ T8 n: L7 S* Z/ {
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 , x: {: W( ]+ b% c* H
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
' w! P9 W% ~+ h3 y( b% m# R其次、
2 C9 p5 F2 E; p缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
- v7 q3 H* @2 g3 Q- m每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
: p% W5 {7 e" z. o a! ~等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
/ ~: j) m3 T c0 ~4 m0 S美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
# N6 N* X% d) C$ t& E& ~3 K) M但回到币圈、 8 {$ {. i% D. [$ W+ G
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 . l) b. I$ T+ u0 f. e7 L- w- q
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 5 M8 d& f; @, Z4 }% L1 F5 A) Q
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 % a& v; c" ]: d! {
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 4 k% i2 ?, a' x. D
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
% h! d! L- x5 ^! `5 e对当前的底部、影响有限。
7 u+ J' T; t+ \8 p2 g* I最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 5 y* d; Q8 O% o0 W% S% K7 \8 o
所以27000、即是 3 L0 f4 C' U8 [; l- r% F3 K
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
. Q: S( _6 b$ o3 F" y同时还是去年放水初期低点、
2 y. L! y2 S" ^0 i7 l6 i也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
0 u0 |) w/ A! t4 O) G) x. y. _由此得出的结论是、 3 |4 @5 o+ O3 }8 w" }( o
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 2 E: ]+ j' C$ ?. t: c
点位不会出现太大偏离。 & Y2 g3 n: M: _* i+ J( ]
综合以上、 ! h! @7 j1 v3 r$ s2 R) g3 r; t
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 $ ?% s# n' Q( q6 z2 q: Z8 [
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 4 Y7 R9 \4 `8 _$ I% X Z7 F
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 # R) f+ i( g) d8 U
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 8 n* _/ y' Z, r9 `6 \: M' d6 _
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
' Y7 [% ~3 B: K+ b5 J7 |8 Z即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 # x4 N- o. W- T9 W# c) b! s
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 * \3 u- y2 e. q+ ~6 k( ?7 z
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
* e Q$ h3 @+ ~" g2 w7 M大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
7 U5 Y# |% ~; F! }0 i, m逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ) D' r9 k: [+ [- B @
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 * q, C# h' [3 I, I) S. I3 ?
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
, h2 k5 K0 l8 w4 `( X- Z得不偿失。 " k m* P2 u, ]" M. W3 n
来源：金色财经 |
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