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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
5 P9 Z- Z* b! Y5 h( S) V! E余勋也不例外、 ; d7 K5 Z# E. t: L5 S0 T( B$ e
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
, w- E8 V: k1 A# A3 L是保经济的重要决策！
4 s7 q/ Y9 u& M0 D+ E' E7 q这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ) [* w- t0 L9 M
低点26700-32400、
% x5 g; g% _! V+ c: }' X$ d: `( P反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 : S" X' L) }" J5 ~
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 - b+ B6 s( q, ^- Q9 g) e* m. w5 _
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
. S( k6 y" u3 V O& F涨幅就已回撤过半！ / Y" y" l* ]+ _' s
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 0 f1 ]2 E* N- y' L: i
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
7 o" r+ ?. O0 Y; F" e5 O其次、
8 m' U2 b) @7 g缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 9 @; K* [$ d: N& k6 Z7 Y1 ?: t" p
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
- }& L- W" T! x! Z等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
9 ~: g5 x2 ^! ], v! b; j, n- }- ^8 J美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 G0 K2 g8 d# k0 m1 P
但回到币圈、
: \: b7 z: ~4 |) S2 D去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ' z; E& S E7 n' r F
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ) M" x+ h; R, F- T8 Q4 W$ Z8 e+ o
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 . i3 G5 E' q1 |' O, I
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
3 M- V. R+ f( P; a缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
; _+ m0 \; B0 a S7 K对当前的底部、影响有限。
! I7 _7 B4 b8 p$ ~7 p最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
" a; K1 D; z4 g; a所以27000、即是 8 D' {0 {& M/ ^" X
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
/ d1 X5 F( G: Y+ x- o$ |3 E5 P同时还是去年放水初期低点、
2 I; ^" y% r( Y6 _$ o$ V& I0 W也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 3 _5 ?' i2 q+ t2 h! b
由此得出的结论是、
" g7 i, ?# K% N* r加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 0 G2 b3 V+ e C+ C5 f4 {
点位不会出现太大偏离。
: W: `3 s# z4 m# G$ }; N3 C综合以上、
% i z+ Z+ |6 U3 @, Z2 S美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 3 i, T7 G5 Z# R% x5 X" i/ ~
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
Z% d! q0 N; A那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 % S q1 H/ B2 [( l+ h
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ( h- g- \$ J' Z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
: |: s4 ~, h- Z/ g, ]- f即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
% O! X7 F- r9 @$ K; d美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 # ?' m. b: ~: M X& v
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 : {* `8 _; ]7 c2 \/ l# u8 z3 g
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
; z* V1 M$ I- C3 R# g7 P逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
5 n) z* U2 R, ]6 i. K( z3 j% o高空需至31700-32000间布局、 3 t# J2 W0 Y* o) {2 B8 _
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
2 i& Y9 l! G& d% l' r得不偿失。 2 `! v+ w0 Z/ s7 k
来源：金色财经 |
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