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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 . T, P. V$ \( S( t- C
余勋也不例外、 % a! h* G4 ^9 i4 X( f
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
# Y. i$ b, i' x" k8 y- y4 b( c6 E: i9 w是保经济的重要决策！ ' Q' j* z- w1 G3 U: O, d
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
7 T/ F2 \! i3 W5 f低点26700-32400、 & Y- }9 V5 y$ T* G$ G" m
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 9 o( \! x# ^2 J
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 : C$ d. r2 U, D2 G7 W0 c; l
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 6 y: _9 F2 v6 F' k: P0 z
涨幅就已回撤过半！ # H6 y. _) M: o
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
4 t8 f- l" |, R, a不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ; I+ P# S; \6 Q9 l! C
其次、 ) c* y5 A. h/ q- B F% B' O, a6 ?
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 1 d- l! I# O2 k
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
. o, V0 ?5 t( }( X等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
# S: i, D* `+ N7 N: c" ~6 f+ s美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 x' }. |, S1 B& B* D0 {" Q% z0 P
但回到币圈、 9 F6 ]$ e# {5 }7 ^& ]0 ?
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 g$ E- I6 ~# a+ V* m1 i9 d
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
% B" a1 X6 {( a* b) o而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 # v& Y/ u- h4 k+ d# N
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 2 n& l( V& k0 G& }6 W& F
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 " I3 m; |3 Y; t2 p O3 m+ D0 H ]; u
对当前的底部、影响有限。
1 o: Z0 R0 W1 O2 D6 {最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 5 Z5 C1 u8 W- K2 f" t
所以27000、即是 2 ~, @+ B! I+ h/ v$ e
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 7 p6 k0 H* I$ N7 F: d+ l
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
0 W2 w% O/ \; U也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
7 @" L7 M; i" z/ w! Q' l2 F. D由此得出的结论是、
3 ?! \3 ^( x+ k1 Y! s加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
; @& G, C- H2 u+ ]' |1 U) ?" U. e点位不会出现太大偏离。
( J4 M/ Q4 @. L" p综合以上、
/ h; Z9 I' N$ N% T2 x2 J美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
& v) h/ m/ T l' g7 N8 n在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 + j' X" ]2 g: P0 E- g9 a. f" ~
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
* ]2 M# P* j8 A& I" K1 ~2 T1 n$ l抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 " H6 \! c1 ^/ h5 e2 K! Z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
9 i$ f8 j; G: e) e! M) z即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 3 d1 s+ t& e+ {' ]6 x# c# ~
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
3 b: _( V+ S: G n+ } G夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 . h7 p- W3 R2 B
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
: M: E' k4 T& K* Q3 J! ~6 h逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 2 A: A4 I, U( }- f. o
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 7 w" y8 s1 X% k8 _
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
7 Z( x+ e- [/ u7 L) }8 V得不偿失。
2 t# z9 x# B( a6 _9 p来源：金色财经 |
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