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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
: |* `- g8 P( m1 B2 C8 D5 f7 M     : ~, n. [9 V7 b5 Q; t7 ~" [5 M
     平手中水,主队有利# j/ e& ]# G6 F9 E" u* b
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。* f7 j2 [  I$ B* F& ^. ?4 B
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
2 ?; a3 L9 K' v( D2 @" E$ c     英超主队
/ r7 l2 B  O6 {, q8 F2 E6 d     胜:13场 48%$ o: F% I7 E1 y6 y. t+ c: X1 x
     平:5场 17%
- x% G6 v/ J, x( k( L     负:9场 35%
( s7 V2 V. G2 x9 x1 X     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。) i- f! \' {5 M" x. Q! ]( P# ?
     - a& T: U7 l" P6 Q( W
     一、初盘阶段* p+ m6 F9 s' ~5 N+ b3 k+ x
     具体到水位如下:
/ W* ~2 n; R9 q* p. F     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负9 p0 w$ Q) P& p# O4 q$ r$ e
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
/ N+ ~: Q) Y* Q- D  A     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负) ]( `" \) U, O* X. R' ~/ D
     0 L, H6 z, g' u
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
/ v4 s4 R' g7 k* y, m     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
! E+ y* v4 W1 P  v$ {0 _     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。! R6 B& ^. ^* ]) M+ @9 B: Y
     
8 ^( u0 R; F$ C: M) _     二、临场阶段
+ r% y- a4 ~. o6 g$ Y     
' [, o) \; M  m/ b' X     具体到变盘和水位如下:
) u$ E$ M! I0 M. M8 O& \( l% r6 U. }     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
. a1 k; j+ l) J* Z     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负! ?( f/ H! |# E" s; ?: @; L, ?
     
; R" s( ]3 Y2 _/ y8 U     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
1 B% k0 P. j$ Q1 w2 L5 p. \! y( }* ]3 I     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:2 s: Q% Q* C! u; u
     ! @" x" K6 j5 m- w0 [' K
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
; u) S1 ]# C3 ~: h) g' c0 A+ L     初盘:0.82平手1.04
- ]  n# {, [* Z     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85/ e! R9 q# y3 ?9 ]4 o% ^
     
3 O0 E" H3 f' f  D( _( X6 o     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆$ A5 e  |. \% V4 E# r
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
) {$ T: n; Y( x     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
  _4 e7 [4 t" M/ P  P     . ^+ u0 ]. J' X4 X
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技# G: H: Y& t& t: t: ]
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
( ]* ?; ^2 t5 b% I  J6 h0 `     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* w  [) b5 c) I8 E. O8 g2 c/ Q5 n     - ], Q! v# D, ]" J5 h$ h
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆' a: G. V+ q% t: B4 v9 M6 h$ |" p
     初盘:0.88平手0.980 L, }8 y9 q1 R4 ?
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74+ b4 j, w0 g1 w2 s8 m- z' |
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
4 f2 K& b& w1 _: e2 F" Y; m8 e& E2 @     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。/ Y3 V* q' d2 v& r) C
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
& O) a% V3 D# V     
2 b0 G4 p6 y3 c$ B. C) F     三、球队表现
3 O5 m6 U  x" e5 r     . M5 F+ Y& W$ h7 |' f8 _
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
  O, D3 Q, R# F     
0 o; o. |0 f$ d! {8 a+ P     四、投注要点
; O/ R  _7 A8 z  e8 `     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
2 m: k, G9 |# b2 G. ]: {     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
; D2 D& Q5 i" {5 C% b' L     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
1 E( L0 ?* L7 a$ }+ x     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& d& W! @0 C% ]
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任6 |- c. u) j$ E" c* l* H
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
$ J' @3 _% F' \: W- _6 T" @( {* N* {% K     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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