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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘) ~5 `( [8 H: `6 ~( Z+ d
     # }9 r% K" j1 c5 u5 X; _
     平手中水,主队有利# ]: F7 Y  Y* O1 r2 C
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
% `0 k! B' I4 `4 h9 E     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:6 H9 _) h3 N" g7 F  l
     英超主队* ~5 ^4 S+ b0 Q5 m
     胜:13场 48%
- M( p% l5 ?2 X* m0 ~: ~     平:5场 17%
* z! _; v2 }& b$ H     负:9场 35%) B0 [- M7 |, m
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
6 h/ L: J. `" X  S( t* J       \0 S4 d! }1 ^5 h3 Z1 S. X
     一、初盘阶段. Q3 c" v" I6 ]" n
     具体到水位如下:! k3 c7 m* s1 m/ f# o" K6 S6 j' I$ C
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
' J/ \- H' V( h4 |! Z     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
1 F; K  X0 Z3 J     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
; ]' R% u$ e; j3 v, C0 O4 V     $ g" v1 f! V& }; B2 W
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。' ]8 J5 ^/ }! L9 y
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。' N8 I) M  v6 `7 @6 z
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
2 j* o9 i% M9 d     
' b  d! b) e% m$ X- t     二、临场阶段" q) u, `) P8 O! |; D
     
! |7 t* c: Z9 u2 w     具体到变盘和水位如下:
$ [8 k, V, x# u( \; h     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负. A% p6 U  }+ [# q
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
) o: L' m8 L! `  l: u/ m     ) c. k2 w5 h: `9 n
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
/ k" U/ m4 n, h2 A( r% N     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:# I, j: ~( I4 W6 F
     
2 ?* k" ~& Q) F% ?, o     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
3 l1 V5 V8 z* p) _/ i     初盘:0.82平手1.04
8 B. O3 s9 i/ ]9 [4 J8 C0 x     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
+ x1 G7 f7 q! a5 A0 L/ ^4 h     , _0 \+ B9 s4 A1 O7 S5 {/ o
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆: |0 d: v( n" k. L- j
     初盘:0.76平手1.10( c: }& ^5 W8 u( g4 A& ?! ^
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
2 R) ~) r3 G+ Q& @1 L3 B  W     $ K( O1 M* n2 e7 t  r, k- R
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技( g! e+ U  H# P. J  s7 [; A& B% v8 h
     初盘:0.82平手1.04# M' K- I( v" R
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
4 ?7 t) R8 B5 p( [: _) x     7 f; x! a& z: u! `% u) S
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
  `5 {  ^7 J, e0 D2 C6 o4 T. U  _* B     初盘:0.88平手0.98! v: X( w7 y' E5 P  @9 f
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74( t) A4 z2 ]1 q/ k7 e0 J
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
: c" r' B: i9 x6 a- v1 [     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
& v5 m, y8 O9 Q2 B" L9 s     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
! I# ^" s- v% m8 h' i) @- f6 K( A/ m     
" b6 p# D, ?" G! d8 i& r+ P     三、球队表现" I0 B, A7 F6 @- E. [/ S
     % z, H  K5 p, L
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
, G5 V% b0 Z1 b$ ~     
7 S+ \" u4 u/ g6 u' V5 D     四、投注要点7 \) V' R  g+ \: I% L
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
- x* z% V$ }  p; v     要点2:平手降盘、走两头1 i7 ?. G: T5 K# q9 I: }( d
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
* z. ~% u& l$ g& G# U$ x     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
6 y7 z' A4 _9 z: p     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任$ O% G! p4 z# q, _" N6 e4 r1 P
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大) S, m" ~' g! e% q$ c3 A
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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