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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
+ ?( t% \: F: j/ A1 R     ' i# J, b  x: V# n  N
     平手中水,主队有利
1 u5 s  X$ Y5 J: H+ h# V     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
+ q: t6 K3 Z1 i) e5 v( |! M8 L     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:( F1 y2 b5 J2 D; o3 u
     英超主队9 O" A- O  T4 M( N
     胜:13场 48%
. K/ y& S: e% P# y6 b     平:5场 17%3 v4 R' h0 K6 w' l% C
     负:9场 35%( J, ]: f$ A( S+ ^! ?, d2 o
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
/ Q7 Y5 A" C. m( x; B# p     3 _' O+ x: _' D: x! Z  w! t
     一、初盘阶段+ g+ A4 k: Q8 b3 c4 \1 E
     具体到水位如下:
5 H7 x" K! l5 I3 q. |     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负4 `' b9 f& ?. t& N1 _7 r
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
& @) H8 v- O3 u. ^     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负4 V$ [( [5 V3 G5 X9 n. b
     % n- p" f. x6 ~, t
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。0 d0 x3 |  P# `
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。8 h% w& x2 h0 o3 J/ ~
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。! Z" B% x4 H' o6 \# {
     ' W9 M, f3 L" |; o1 z5 j5 p
     二、临场阶段: ]/ s( n! w4 t2 j, b" G
     
$ M( h! F1 o# f( a, q* _     具体到变盘和水位如下:
5 N. L; S7 T. }- d6 T7 t     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负. f/ o* M0 u8 Y) @' }; u
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负7 i5 w. l3 ]# v# H9 S: x. P' T
     
! w! u, N; ]* T& x. ?" h     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
$ Q! z* B& Y8 T. i" F     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:: Y. L/ O" b- q' v- e
     
/ l- O6 m* {1 o2 M, ?& k: S     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 x1 b9 C* d  g/ [     初盘:0.82平手1.04
# |' G- v  S) S     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
" k) X1 l9 n% t2 d" W     9 p. |" R) q( n0 h9 p
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆% P" `, J1 Y0 j6 Q# v4 O
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
2 V- e: \& {& t4 F3 L9 j# o     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
  x9 w0 J  R$ {9 V- d% f+ W; [     ; k% x. D! e( O3 ~. i6 C, P7 A! F9 X1 s
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
8 `9 O  X) i1 P' z0 Z     初盘:0.82平手1.04- M) F4 G# Y  H( Q% @
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
% `7 y. z+ z7 e4 R     
# R; v7 J& m0 o( Q. m3 b9 I" ?: ?     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
* a* j" ?( v7 X2 Y5 ?7 G9 u     初盘:0.88平手0.98
6 y" {! W, M7 _     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
1 w1 m0 c4 G- g* X5 k     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。. f- ]/ l5 i$ s5 \, }* k7 [
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
, {3 g4 h- d, T     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
. k6 f) y5 o5 c" a     ' Y  e2 U: Y1 X1 y8 B2 Z4 {, M0 [$ z
     三、球队表现) x; _9 L; T0 S! _* I' V" W" D
     
# g2 Q2 ]) D7 }" T     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
* ^& J) Q) }; d0 b/ O( g# O     + e+ a- m5 L9 ]. Y
     四、投注要点
" }4 W- O0 ?8 S. `1 [     要点1:平手中水、主多不败* \/ @2 }" K/ w- s( T( ^: h
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头' y  ?( N  d$ Z/ x& Z0 X( ^
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
3 L( ~/ r; ~8 m     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
! f7 J3 C: ?6 i9 M     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
6 B. v  O0 \. @& _  U* m. i/ f     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大, s7 A0 ~" M1 p) M
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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