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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
9 O5 J Z- c" e' G/ A; X ) r5 H5 }! L: \: o" a4 ^
平手中水,主队有利0 a( F8 x$ R9 c: G( ]
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。. E( s1 V' ~0 `: ]& m6 H' a% M
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:; ]/ U( r4 v2 b. Q6 k+ h
英超主队9 T$ V- ~. v1 x8 d( ~, C
胜:13场 48%. ^( F0 X9 Z! y( o, c
平:5场 17%
" \% J! o# p& J- Z& U7 ~5 |2 N 负:9场 35%" X+ q$ D4 s/ C
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
: a# `+ @+ | ^' ^) G 2 O0 y& N9 _* ?* Z+ M/ u
一、初盘阶段2 M; R+ N2 t' c. C) h5 m
具体到水位如下:
5 |: q! |0 H5 }, J$ B" T4 g 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
& u8 L. n1 L( ~6 v0 B: Y 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负7 Z' u3 m3 w" Q/ z
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负6 E" n5 ^8 r+ W3 l+ M m
2 S1 X: m; p1 A% J% [9 |# d
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
: q( T$ |: H9 Z 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
5 G- O. P$ e8 q N 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。7 {# B# ]2 ^# U- H
. D) D3 n5 h& ?+ }/ ^; ~( r) [
二、临场阶段. I6 C R5 f4 g& y8 h; F0 S
! |/ @; @2 G0 p8 b% T 具体到变盘和水位如下:8 t# y) o4 H4 w
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
/ W7 G- e4 {2 I( H. e/ v 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
0 i. ]3 p9 W+ F2 c
) h" S' p1 C- Q* `. I 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。" n7 g9 Y- R: l1 M/ \7 {
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
: J/ O( _! N* F# d! c# L7 T5 k
1 @: I. U9 E- R4 r! h4 p 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
& y: N3 m, ]2 F5 p' }: z 初盘:0.82平手1.043 C* [ y" q8 w; \
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
- G$ h- w: W4 {% ~ 1 `* c7 l) G" P: u! F
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆% \3 j! {' I9 K8 ?+ b5 `) Q& `5 z3 @
初盘:0.76平手1.10' a0 j; b$ [3 X& ^$ S8 C; f
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91* _2 H A" u( b2 I2 D
, ?8 m4 B6 z# g \. d$ X4 {2 H" w8 M
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
* |7 i Y7 J. ?! e' q* C 初盘:0.82平手1.041 ~8 @+ F2 e3 K# v K
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98; h O# x+ {" R/ q
% }, Q0 ` }& _6 ^0 z# }: J. e$ z" o
伯恩利2-1西汉姆, I( ^! q2 J. W* d/ s2 Y$ T
初盘:0.88平手0.98
: j! B& X/ ~4 Q/ n( p) m6 P 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
* O4 M2 a* b4 F# D9 _8 _ 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。9 o p6 n& k+ U
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。2 n& G8 ]2 v4 ^- @# S, W
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。! ]) t# P0 H4 f9 |+ _! i8 i
2 K+ [& k* K) ? ~. q
三、球队表现
( P: j, s9 [: b" m7 L( \% ]) Z 5 T3 v0 o* N0 V, W
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
8 {) C5 e- [3 d 3 u3 F6 h' L- c! t& Y3 Z
四、投注要点
o Q; M" X( f' d 要点1:平手中水、主多不败' [3 ^: p1 J. B0 M- r
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
* l' N% W* c! T 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败% Y7 _7 m8 p, P4 J2 g
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
p( ~: D' P- k( `3 R 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
1 q9 h; X0 v9 t/ L 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大1 B- c$ P% D' p; l5 v0 A7 o/ J
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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