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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
# n+ u* W0 x* ^7 A, R7 p     4 i3 P5 B+ t  A6 {8 w
     平手中水,主队有利
6 u! P" D; {% \- v3 M5 x& x4 R     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。+ U% I# j. h3 E' m5 V/ i
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
- V+ K7 M3 u2 U- y$ b- w1 F0 R     英超主队
5 K4 l# [# r& z9 j! z% |) ^- K& D; I     胜:13场 48%
. W7 @. ]/ s+ J/ T8 z9 l( `     平:5场 17%1 `& [7 i3 W$ }  l1 n
     负:9场 35%( q2 B; X, S- K0 L" u- Z" `8 t
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
5 R6 e; g& x7 X# Z  \     - ?7 `* P- _5 b3 {
     一、初盘阶段/ F% k8 l9 P" w) ^1 U0 _# |
     具体到水位如下:
/ w, J7 r$ Q, J! G3 k8 ^     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负6 e! p+ K( t/ |3 W# w
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
( ]$ O3 U1 D- r9 X3 Z. o     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
" _/ X4 Y+ L# P% u' L     
4 `2 a4 _+ C# D( A# B, P+ @. c     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。# U. `/ W0 y( @  ^8 V4 \
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。$ m3 s1 f, _* i2 d
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。* z2 g+ D6 [  y7 |4 {7 F
     5 \9 b5 l6 N/ p+ m9 e9 j
     二、临场阶段3 K3 U0 [+ r5 l' f. d: G+ O
     . O/ K! V" K, g. @2 M
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
+ z- \/ }( j) s1 L' Y3 t: n4 J     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负+ O* w. e7 e4 y: d
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
2 c+ v3 Y5 g8 J+ D7 Z7 }     
2 D6 h1 \8 O/ z' A' V     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
3 S$ |( s# B; ^1 B5 Q/ d     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:) ?" g. @! X7 |7 |: }+ d' t) A" R7 ^
     # g7 J. k/ z2 T, `% r- s
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
. a6 c! D. j# d2 N' `; s     初盘:0.82平手1.04# A1 \/ Z1 k, H$ ?4 a2 g7 _& J
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
2 C( x8 t" ~; `2 `& O- {     - {" `& P% w5 B- H  J; m3 I4 _# T" g
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
$ V, d& R- b+ \0 x+ H     初盘:0.76平手1.10; {, p4 E  s, K
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
4 g& I6 G6 X# g! n  t2 P     
4 ?% m- C4 E+ M' W% {     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
" D0 r0 @3 ~) w6 L0 @     初盘:0.82平手1.047 }5 e5 ?! B, v  I) o
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
6 V! b/ e& \- Q, A" n( G2 M     
$ Q9 ^) r: j5 ]; F     伯恩利2-1西汉姆3 Y8 m8 z2 k0 d' {  b
     初盘:0.88平手0.985 [, U: B# A* k. V: O- w
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
9 c- A, |3 i- L     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
2 z9 }- H2 d2 Q4 n$ x" P     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。7 y0 g- x! O" j
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
0 B7 V: N/ d1 k: [     7 q. ]) g* j' j7 N/ D
     三、球队表现
3 K# h% t6 x7 W' W' `) W" g: Y     
% @2 Q# B& M0 J% ~     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
* Q3 w( Y* s/ s1 I# G* G     
7 U7 Q. [6 ]. f* B8 F% P' X7 v$ ~: x     四、投注要点' p. X/ x8 d, i3 j* W5 K, A
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
( j# ?8 F7 v; F: e* E+ b     要点2:平手降盘、走两头6 w0 d2 V5 _% @8 |# Q) z
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败6 ]& l! [6 R$ Y5 s" R- |
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大$ d' r% s- f4 h! z
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
" v- L0 U# P" J& t     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大7 j8 X$ B  k, m1 o. ?3 Y! a, z
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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