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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘6 I: {* W: s: { R8 w5 y: T$ Y8 W
7 i& P- |5 b! M$ o) N& m6 o
平手中水,主队有利5 y8 B+ R5 b8 N2 I7 t; i
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。8 Y# k2 x1 {* V R9 U: o
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
: E3 k, T" v9 D l, ~. _ 英超主队
: g+ X6 f" T: l) I/ q5 q 胜:13场 48%
" y; Q& L0 M& [/ v 平:5场 17%
$ B$ a/ s8 w' j6 I7 _5 r; e9 @ 负:9场 35%
- D2 Q# T3 }5 h: Z; A 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
2 Q. @) }. O# k& X
" E+ |: q5 s5 z9 K, h. u 一、初盘阶段
4 \7 u; |6 P0 g) ^ _8 K 具体到水位如下:, \4 l! H- T! c. Z4 y& d3 E4 p0 a
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负; v, H6 R0 }" ?$ z+ `
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负! b+ y- R; l0 r) J p# ]; |* w( n
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
6 T' |/ A! J- p e" o
% R. N R- Q* p- ` 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。' V" [ G* c5 p' N. f" E6 g; } {
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
# @ H1 q; E3 z' {- A) e 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。7 [" E o' U' o; Q
# e) {) t3 {- D
二、临场阶段. H3 X" w0 U" ~& W$ _0 l
5 {1 N7 e, z6 J) E' V* L
具体到变盘和水位如下:
) D2 ]8 {& `/ u* L 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负, s1 w! J% u1 h; Q R& D4 G6 |. ^
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
' f" ?% D! ^" I% T3 U( D + q3 f7 H2 E9 H: ?5 P2 E4 w6 x2 H
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。6 e( Z* T8 D8 v# ?
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
& N: ?, t8 g m# J& N* Y" C 3 b: A% F4 b9 O8 m
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿# }4 I5 I) q2 D4 F q: E2 J& v
初盘:0.82平手1.04
) B1 I" c# M. d4 R! F) P( L) l 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
: i1 g) o' H7 A( g, d+ _: W/ } 9 C4 E5 |4 U' F. ?6 ~* b! y
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
. |4 [( F# _ e7 d) G& u3 ?( @/ [' f 初盘:0.76平手1.10
r3 o7 h% U u, j2 N 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
+ d9 B4 o7 A; _ |
- }; c; @# U# i- M6 Y 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技6 [) R8 ~5 ~. k7 I
初盘:0.82平手1.04+ _% C5 c9 Y3 Y" F8 u
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98$ W$ Y7 g$ I* v, E# l
5 e6 z3 S5 ?3 u 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
) U8 {! F- \+ x/ R. O/ e: J 初盘:0.88平手0.98$ {( ?0 j" B: s% b; t7 y B' z
终盘:1.12平/半0.74) O, m8 W9 }, M6 E# ~ M# N! E
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
. w/ Q1 s: U( ]: E 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
/ o' W. w f$ y( [ 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。2 ]; Q" h3 N% G+ S
7 V; [; r, V, W4 ~ 三、球队表现
3 g; ~3 U* q+ k% Z; J * s1 ?$ D2 L6 E; a$ h% ~" T7 E' j4 D
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。5 f! z& O% _$ {, ^6 ^- h
- w3 r6 Z) f5 y" `- ]
四、投注要点# B6 p$ B- \9 I& v. L
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
* O* d( z4 B, J. i& m 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
- S. F- T; ?$ \( P 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败: [ U1 z* j& g" i. S$ S+ d
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大: G$ Q7 u2 U4 W8 b1 X. C; T+ d
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
# N9 [; t1 `. f& H/ U 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大( D' B! {, N* X9 ^; f7 ]9 k
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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