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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。( ^* ^- `: `( J2 U

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/ [3 A; ?! V: b4 Q. \' p西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率7 i6 s( S$ }& e! l5 I, K. {

1 O) A4 D& W* r3 w& `- U0 f以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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8 z5 w# i( |9 C' s; A) c6 O- x皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 5 i- ^7 q# g7 Y, X$ l8 r0 r$ q

/ e5 H  x; ?; x2 \2 `! ]6 a# w很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 [, j) Q9 Y: V+ x: h* A) U( ^/ x

% r/ @" F; ?# u2 E答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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2 K) a' J) y8 O! O6 @0 S, }/ n, l- w( D" {& N5 L" l
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性# z4 c9 ~( ]9 K' m/ B
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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/ U' G7 @) j9 v. C, o增值
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0 k6 }2 C8 R  d! e许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。0 `2 [" n4 f) u$ p) s" ?" o

7 s) w" O6 b' f% r7 i* P# H, V你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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9 @/ z$ Q8 l, l- ea) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么2 L# \/ [" E- ?* P! [

* {0 K" O" @7 z/ _6 G. j9 ~% ]40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
3 n9 y: M6 S% ?! M9 U60%的机会你会一无所有
1 c) L! ~/ m3 L预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 & h  S! }% s) U
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。$ |* t. Y- N2 d* G6 \, \/ H
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。. e: s3 b" g7 u1 x1 I
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。' _% r+ v! F2 F' m  {6 `4 S/ `

+ V# s0 e: m, q0 z公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金7 ~$ e4 V; j1 J% G2 d! Y& t+ y1 U0 C
P=获胜机会
  Y5 L# ^$ H+ o+ uO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)# n, A; J" D7 a. O; d

/ T# V' Q0 u" e首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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5 r2 S: Q# b0 F5 e1 I8 x* A: n好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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+ {( d& m. H& `& y3 }9 M1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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6 k5 i4 V5 B( h- R1 fA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5); a! f# }; K. T7 G7 D' w& u
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A=0
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5 |5 P- P: I2 r( u1 F! V9 z7 u# R结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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6 n( }' f2 M# r! Q; m0 q9 k& n2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)* x+ E3 o' a$ s- h% L& Z  E, t3 O/ j

) G1 F# U5 k) ^/ U; w& @; L: PA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2): A3 P' ^& w% t! ^8 O

/ ~6 k% p. y- k( r8 C, b& X! uA=0.11 Q0 |8 s0 I) W2 X. l; C! S
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)$ Y5 m' k& {0 h" n2 j4 F
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)- Y# f, b0 w* s0 \2 m9 Z% Y8 I7 |

8 g7 R( e( c% NA= -0.2
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1 i; l$ z( q; b* t( y结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好5 L' t+ x0 ?6 y$ `/ Q* E* K' Z" t4 M

* [6 g0 p$ j! [  }$ n( A9 o第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
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