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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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. Q" l2 W4 k9 p' L西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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, W. I/ h5 E: r" l6 g皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?4 e0 J: Z: `' C- U; d

: B7 t- P; k% ]% B6 D% d; f答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)" k" e8 h5 W; g$ _
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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+ l6 h5 F4 @5 G4 d1 d( \3 [4 C" j
盈利可能性
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7 z- X: c; A. S3 Z* {/ y7 z对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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: z- o9 v% b$ t8 f1 N增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。% j& \6 u* y0 }( O/ f- S- P7 i
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 e6 ?' ~4 p- Z% L. i
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么( S6 p  n7 J$ m) j. x
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& O; ]$ ^4 |4 e: e& Y. @, A# h
60%的机会你会一无所有! K: P+ u4 P) n, ?7 O' r! b; r
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
% q1 o1 D! G" q由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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& }6 {! s6 c9 O3 ]增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。0 h5 M8 s4 S7 k" u- X
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)7 X8 K" K5 @6 H6 [' Y: K

+ j0 D9 m! W0 K& K8 nA=博彩资金, y5 {0 q# U  \
P=获胜机会
- H* E: v% P. tO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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+ d9 ]  |' G) q, @* h3 D5 v首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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  i- L4 E( {+ J9 E  w; |3 a" L, P好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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& j6 N+ I! P) \. t2 h1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)8 q" }7 A0 ~9 r- f/ S" |; ~4 H' k

6 X: b4 g6 Y! @1 j7 n; z; CA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)$ v3 i5 B& K0 ]0 Y1 Y: R, L' g6 O
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A=0
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6 a% k( K# m4 l4 r" B# }' p) n. L  N9 Y: {结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢! Y+ W' Z& }* R4 |/ l* i
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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# w0 T- {4 F3 e$ a# ^1 w0 J! ^A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) O) d, o# {5 g7 ~4 |1 W

0 q4 ?: U+ [: V8 K4 C" H2 N. oA=0.1
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# h" |1 `0 l- j8 w% T结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去7 {9 O; m* Z7 D4 m( d9 M, E

' s% u4 s, O' u! v3 a% L3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)0 C+ H$ k2 w# \' Q- \
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1), M7 ^* V, _) Y) l; W5 w9 n5 \4 g
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A= -0.2
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8 \7 x& E$ ?8 b  U+ C/ v结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好- S' G% a6 O' \( E% q* d

! j& u1 U3 f% F9 e5 A第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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