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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
" n! w* @7 V! {# l* \4 k A/ o1 x
. Q" l2 W4 k9 p' L西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
i% R- u6 V0 O' M! v' R, t9 \6 T& p z8 {% X3 |5 ~
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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, W. I/ h5 E: r" l6 g皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
9 |, \7 }8 Z: B) r' L* X" a0 A; B" I4 A+ d8 x- T
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?4 e0 J: Z: `' C- U; d
: B7 t- P; k% ]% B6 D% d; f答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)" k" e8 h5 W; g$ _
$ z% x3 I+ V) N! Z! L* L. z' G- A
% b n; c% s! W8 z' m
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
. K" g7 ]8 Y% r o2 U5 z) O% p- E) }% u$ A
+ l6 h5 F4 @5 G4 d1 d( \3 [4 C" j
盈利可能性
+ l4 m. z1 D) J- y- J# n
7 z- X: c; A. S3 Z* {/ y7 z对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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: z- o9 v% b$ t8 f1 N增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。% j& \6 u* y0 }( O/ f- S- P7 i
/ m" z6 P3 y# c) K/ B
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 e6 ?' ~4 p- Z% L. i
) U j. E: f* l. [6 b7 M8 q
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么( S6 p n7 J$ m) j. x
$ ^2 f* u& {/ H$ V2 o# w3 W
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& O; ]$ ^4 |4 e: e& Y. @, A# h
60%的机会你会一无所有! K: P+ u4 P) n, ?7 O' r! b; r
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
% q1 o1 D! G" q由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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& }6 {! s6 c9 O3 ]增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。0 h5 M8 s4 S7 k" u- X
( S0 P4 {1 k4 \+ q, {% O
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)7 X8 K" K5 @6 H6 [' Y: K
+ j0 D9 m! W0 K& K8 nA=博彩资金, y5 {0 q# U \
P=获胜机会
- H* E: v% P. tO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
! @# s# ^* k& L* p* H' B1 v
+ d9 ] |' G) q, @* h3 D5 v首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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i- L4 E( {+ J9 E w; |3 a" L, P好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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& j6 N+ I! P) \. t2 h1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)8 q" }7 A0 ~9 r- f/ S" |; ~4 H' k
6 X: b4 g6 Y! @1 j7 n; z; CA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)$ v3 i5 B& K0 ]0 Y1 Y: R, L' g6 O
5 J2 m% X; `" L
A=0
) a- j! R, D( b
6 a% k( K# m4 l4 r" B# }' p) n. L N9 Y: {结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢! Y+ W' Z& }* R4 |/ l* i
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
7 q/ c v& m' ]$ @* ?
# w0 T- {4 F3 e$ a# ^1 w0 J! ^A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) O) d, o# {5 g7 ~4 |1 W
0 q4 ?: U+ [: V8 K4 C" H2 N. oA=0.1
, v9 y; D1 G! [ m, ?' G" L
# h" |1 `0 l- j8 w% T结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去7 {9 O; m* Z7 D4 m( d9 M, E
' s% u4 s, O' u! v3 a% L3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)0 C+ H$ k2 w# \' Q- \
# e) r8 Y. \/ K. J. q* ]4 P
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1), M7 ^* V, _) Y) l; W5 w9 n5 \4 g
7 o5 w" p2 L1 c# J. g
A= -0.2
2 F$ B8 s) j. \3 Q
8 \7 x& E$ ?8 b U+ C/ v结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好- S' G% a6 O' \( E% q* d
! j& u1 U3 f% F9 e5 A第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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