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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。# [ r9 b$ Y6 a
+ q; \5 Y# u8 c& _0 s
# L. h6 }) G6 f# f/ w西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率# Y, B; A+ u2 T8 u
# O) \- I- q3 Z& l. ]. f- n9 W2 {
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
' K \$ Z& r) l }, c e* J3 v
8 U! Z- i6 z% u3 L, d7 `, Q皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 4 K2 N& \$ z0 R2 i- `& @* l( S7 d3 L
' b# ^! i0 z8 j! q) q: f很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?& Y: m$ m, q* m8 V& V; {
/ f# _: C+ l0 }1 P
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)6 Q: n! {' V, I! t
: A0 [8 g2 @( u! g0 t7 P" l2 E% L* M" M ?9 ^& }+ n. _
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
0 Z* S9 O! c0 |' V7 J5 g0 ~& i2 R9 H/ f. J# o" Z0 O: |
0 w9 O2 {& l W盈利可能性7 i3 a9 X) H4 ~2 ]) D, k$ u
$ B) T/ R' G( o4 E
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
6 {, X" {1 h! v$ q, A! F1 F- h; X5 Q7 i. d& R! t! i6 O
增值) Y v5 m6 ^5 E+ z
& Y: w' q% f6 O; K3 P
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
) C: x" E7 l# X) u1 m% b& G- B, v5 v# ]4 z0 E
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
, V+ J! K& E5 s3 W$ K; `4 |
) j8 r- C4 O- k" s/ C+ aa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
* r4 n3 T! N+ ?8 {% P; g" `1 I9 t, ?
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么3 C; a) a4 n; R3 \; `+ l& m, G2 r
: t' o8 Y, z1 h# t40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
+ s; [4 q8 n0 p) h2 ?# [1 ^0 `: Q60%的机会你会一无所有
) w2 K: d" n. W预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
- ^8 h+ e9 ^; W/ n9 p由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。: V1 J: H9 l& z' v
8 c5 g! a4 B1 W6 K
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
' `6 w7 f: t0 d% p2 G }/ s8 ~
( D& e8 {; y) G4 k4 ~基于增值的投注
. p( c0 m8 ]" j
0 m; d9 P6 G+ T凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
5 i8 R- O3 F7 k1 ]) G1 w" I0 Z
- i, n% S" C7 @公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)6 V6 L6 H# h, Z% Z% F
* b- n3 O( u6 ?
A=博彩资金* K+ B+ x; Z, G% X# Q( }/ Z( A9 Q
P=获胜机会
& X/ d5 A. F, M( v3 M5 |O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
. b5 c) b/ s4 a; i4 O5 r0 |
/ C/ X# T8 A# W; D首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。' u/ e( g7 B$ k1 r z/ |
4 O- d6 M5 J: v( a* }9 i' s6 A
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。' E% @7 S+ p4 g; e+ w$ X a
5 Y2 T6 M; V! E I i1 S3 M( ?1 t
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
4 K; |" Z1 z, f8 t, g: M, ?+ Q& G& L; w: x
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
- m+ z' y- y5 U) y! n6 p2 J/ a F+ _0 |
, d6 k& j* M& BA=0; c m1 m% ~$ K; ^* i
9 t0 X9 U4 x. I% _1 L8 r& B& Z* P结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢3 p; j! i. Y: c5 `" n; o
0 ^( v( f' M# v/ W
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)5 w; c) w' _! {( D& a" }+ U4 {
9 X. W2 ]9 w# e( |7 `4 k9 O
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)6 ]* Q, v6 I7 V7 x: K. ~; k+ i
9 V7 d- k8 n! X+ T( B4 C
A=0.1 A4 p: ], u4 t3 F6 B# x3 i
6 { Q: G/ H% F( ]( L
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
( ]$ P$ ]7 j; l4 w3 y; Y* J9 T0 p1 n$ R. U @; a+ ~
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)( W& u& r- E% F, {' a/ n; F
( H! Y3 V! j: d3 K5 D
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
6 @. ^2 ~0 \: W+ j. w1 }$ ~- B0 y2 f5 X V. Z( L- ^
A= -0.2
; T; v4 B# S r( N+ o
. u/ `9 k# R/ h, L结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% S& _4 H5 C! a, N2 ~$ Z
7 Z J; {5 z% \$ `+ d. F. n
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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