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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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" }, I4 `: X* {: t西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率/ A& Z' n# {( N  h* f" ]
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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4 a% ^0 }2 n- K, G6 P皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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6 ~1 _& j' Y$ W& w答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)4 m" z: m3 b" p8 j/ @
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% n/ o: b0 h' A6 L# u6 w- Z8 t2 C以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性( s2 V* F! [  ~( C% n" b$ ^3 y
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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$ U$ O( u9 i/ |' P7 V' z# n2 }许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。$ f6 T$ n5 R7 s& ?

* C5 |4 g5 |) `0 N0 h' d) B你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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( u. m0 z1 H* u5 L3 w) ^5 la) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 8 f9 w% k+ g  i; v: A
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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- u9 g5 [; r* [) h* R$ w- S4 |4 s40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
, k; Q, ^2 [9 ]8 b2 t1 ~6 _60%的机会你会一无所有' U; W9 r2 T% d* Y2 N4 K, ~7 {1 A
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
5 B# w; H5 x7 G) M; U由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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  K6 T/ j9 ^" `! m# s3 J# v增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。5 @% J  q' e' @( ?8 h; A" Y8 |" M' d

; g0 i+ u- x4 ]7 l0 n5 ~基于增值的投注  J( g! X5 |, ]* k, L, f9 M& L! `
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。& Z7 E/ G: P, ~& Q2 ?' n! g

# ^1 I/ K; ]8 V6 M公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)8 ?$ V7 O. Q; O; H
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A=博彩资金
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O=总获得回报(包括投注本金), N# U, y# S7 B

' L! l6 R' y/ q首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。% x8 x" V1 \, G

: x: @. o! q. F* u; K好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 Q2 }5 P$ h! }7 S

0 K- o: {( e+ c; A0 c( H1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)* t2 E9 b3 j: S/ i  I
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5): ?: M' A3 Z+ q' E) r

6 V3 S" ~! w# ~" s. I8 R, |) ]( ]A=07 x" P; O8 y7 C) \! d

, ?% K4 p, M7 `! j7 x1 c+ g' g, Z结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢' O7 k, H  V; r2 v

6 {4 s; [0 l/ p6 P/ T2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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* y9 G/ e. A5 B3 ?# w0 ]. v4 t3 S$ }A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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! {3 @0 n9 q* x$ M. |9 V5 J3 ]3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)$ N& V- Y/ J/ l. _! V, I

  b/ @- v! G! cA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)4 a. W& k8 a' y6 o- B+ x) P

4 o* l# |4 s3 rA= -0.2 % s" P/ a% }: ?. U. @* e% p

) W& H# e7 p* A( ?1 |, U1 D结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好) J+ A( h! a# P6 M$ N

& o2 w) ^) V( v' ^+ K  G第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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