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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
. A& G' Z/ U' W* S& w* [ s; y, D8 J1 ~* I- t# p! Z
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率. a5 G4 k: @! _4 A8 k; U! R# S( P
, j& j" u- E- N9 q$ ~0 t/ g) q. y
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:; l* Y& O5 ?$ H* n( P
+ q- ^! }* `$ D8 A$ k1 L- I4 M
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% % `; I& p8 H& D3 k# y/ h
}) X% i1 L; @3 f6 F
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?' c1 D# ?6 ~* H! I
- f. ^- H) u- s; E: }6 H
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
' e' ^9 i$ B$ g% k; y& V8 P6 l5 v5 Q2 f, O7 U7 `7 M# ], |4 z
3 L& b% I0 [# s: O/ m# n1 @7 e% p以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
6 k3 t# X! Z2 y' }/ A. U
% t) T) y% ^7 S& Z7 r7 z- h: ^ N3 A0 z& C* U4 e9 U E" H9 i
盈利可能性# D9 O+ Y- Z0 q6 H
! [* o# u, f! e4 w. r$ @5 }对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
# P9 ^8 n, R6 \' Q
# E1 p+ W- N9 p; b- H2 l增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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) ?3 \9 s( `- \8 @* x4 {: @你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
) W5 J o& L3 m# A& g* q5 D
4 y* {5 r2 N. ^$ Ta) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
6 M9 J. w8 u5 A9 G6 X
! l% \/ h! P# J, b0 Q+ |正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么4 |2 N9 b. a3 n# A
1 D! c& N! I" P1 d. J
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 ^, y; l5 N; }, ~- H
60%的机会你会一无所有
3 |5 u& R6 s4 i& |8 E& o预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 3 {$ k0 |2 r4 t2 N. [4 s
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。2 z2 c0 h- L1 n6 F. j' z9 u2 R! e
4 H& t5 W! x" g3 p0 O$ n$ N. A: _% _基于增值的投注( ?2 E$ |7 r4 P3 K
" h; b- y1 h, @凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。1 ] ?# Z3 t/ I- ~8 U$ A+ |
, s& O: d+ j8 b公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
4 S. l3 I4 ]6 U6 c7 ~( k3 W# z! m
A=博彩资金2 r( c& Y3 q; C- d! q2 A
P=获胜机会% t. @( ^4 r% h2 s$ Z3 e
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金), V2 s2 x4 l& ^) V" \
" [+ }$ z) I' T% [首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。5 [7 e: N3 I9 E% ?2 D5 v
$ M9 b$ h0 G/ v& S; C好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
+ K3 Q N2 G# C! o4 @
* j2 Y, W5 |5 \0 X' s9 H( j' aA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
D* L" v' N ?
9 t* A! _( V0 R* `% Z. |% j8 O结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)" o3 I) D# ]2 {% n- v5 Q+ R
9 J, ?2 ], |4 L B8 k+ S/ MA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)5 U& a( _3 Y0 n. r/ V5 q
1 _. o5 |' E3 X% {# BA=0.1+ \3 M( q4 R \ A
0 K% C& N7 _6 y. W结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去! s- l: d: y8 M
) ^6 o% U; t1 V" k' S9 d4 X3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
: l) t7 n$ N5 Q# l6 ~# X1 T, H* R2 [$ w. e
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
# s% M" _0 Y9 V, s! V- c3 z) [) r# F; u! P: ]8 c( A
A= -0.2 ; L: L* B1 S3 Z1 C, m% @5 W! d5 U
$ N @6 h8 v4 c8 C结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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