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[lastpost] => 2783089 现货比特币ETF恢复正资金流动，比特币价格回升至92000美元以上（转） 1763640320 22301
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，5 ^5 h( G7 M) ^) S! A# I
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8 c" ]: |& ~$ P" G: x7 |/ T& t形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于1 d c1 t3 D5 B2 H" W
[1 P1 y; h# v! v逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
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2 R. o0 |' o: p9 k( W/ J2 [策的确定性。
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* a, W% z$ W! r6 I6 L' O2 ~4 J9 I1 e. g; [ 中信证券主要观点如下：0 l; d O, R" ^8 V- S8 o
% F! y1 I9 b* P) p, Z6 Q# N 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。% l1 U( O! y' V9 O$ l
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。! H1 `* e, J2 X( M) A6 S: K8 o K
7 L& { G4 l" p6 w, b0 L& A 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。; x" o2 U2 M( c; d
1 A9 C) |- j& e: U 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。. U$ K+ t$ C) Z% v' v
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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! [* E9 v9 E0 c9 \' A( J* S' Z1 K% } 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。5 M, s# p1 r& W X1 D
( B! O8 Q0 c" E! V 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。 b+ D' t$ L @: ^9 b8 r8 r
1 A- a- g* @! X: V: ] 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫2 F4 Q5 k0 t8 q2 T( q
% v8 a1 z M* {- F+ K破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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- k) k n8 \* } 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性3 j, p& W. \2 I' b1 g( i6 g3 G
3 I/ W5 I6 w/ b" ^' A共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。. l" S4 z1 m7 [8 h
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣8 x1 R' Y3 A# P; S. T
Q! H' z3 T t9 [1 T! g& N5 C势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。0 M# _+ [! X% h8 [( l4 R1 j
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。2 ?/ G7 }" U! v: F+ |# S
3 b, M+ m5 j) h 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政7 R x9 e# J$ J6 S* }" G* R
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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0 O$ b9 P) ^) J2 Z% r 风险因素：. e' P: c: l, d# f9 F3 c9 e
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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