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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 & h5 o; u6 C0 {: \9 j+ s
余勋也不例外、
) V9 j0 x3 N3 X& M其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 4 l- u7 x) i. F" o! d. Q0 V5 |- D
是保经济的重要决策！ : P' @" n* x5 g) e2 s
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 & a9 [6 U. o' U j# M1 ^, X
低点26700-32400、
+ \) H2 G/ J/ \% M g$ d反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
: P7 {: Q; B0 Z. C但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
' A5 v6 \1 E+ c/ e- ]+ S' x大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
6 u' v- X. t _% y8 m3 B8 }涨幅就已回撤过半！ 0 }" j/ ~2 w% i
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 ' p# j+ S* n I6 _
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 u* `- w7 V U/ o' o; e
其次、
" i. k1 p. H: W% `缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
( n, ^: V( y! n5 C7 `9 V每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
. n! a; i$ {7 _( k. |# D/ o等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 1 ?1 z- P# Q: Y& S$ B
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ; S7 B- I- t+ r1 I7 Y3 H' N X* ]
但回到币圈、
2 B$ b. b8 N+ s0 g; H去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 1 W* S X: q$ d. V
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 $ k$ s+ b1 t# ?+ Y9 b
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ' r. m; b0 A; x) c9 ^. I2 h5 E
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ( n B2 s, w: ~: x4 N8 ~
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
8 p# Y5 y/ S9 Y% e- c$ V对当前的底部、影响有限。 1 G% W. I, C) d i- L
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 5 V. f4 M' V* t3 `* M$ o1 B0 u
所以27000、即是
: y2 A$ S2 f. H7 V+ @. f去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
6 s' k/ y" |( M" t同时还是去年放水初期低点、 ' D5 v: G% |+ F5 N' |: r8 X
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 ! I+ t, h' ]* S: u6 o) }0 W/ B
由此得出的结论是、 7 \1 s% O/ u" C& _0 r4 H* X9 R
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 4 G; F8 M0 c3 y# s8 @" l# V
点位不会出现太大偏离。 . q: D) o/ G) c7 D
综合以上、 & k# L/ K* \# E+ K$ V% I
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 0 K# a0 ?/ ^/ f8 s; l; X
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 h+ Y# Y; g+ Q
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 1 N) _& s& i. b6 _8 I7 ^
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 4 [+ W( a$ z% B( P# g3 L+ U/ V+ z# u
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
/ ?7 ?) b" o: d4 d& K/ l即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 5 F z( Z) W+ E: V1 c
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
0 h2 j4 R4 B2 K; Y3 M+ ?6 V夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
% }7 D4 K8 v- X3 b A" Q大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
% `5 w" ]4 C7 Q' B( d/ i逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 9 V; Z/ u- X& C! B3 c: w, W
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
) F* [/ v! }, H9 W1 Z反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 2 ]; f0 ?, T. W; u- Q4 l- T1 R
得不偿失。
$ d: A# g& \. w9 I来源：金色财经 |
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