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' U$ l+ l( q+ W" I7 N& h, O1 V! W
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为. m7 A. |- E* b, E
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，' y& W0 [! {0 o: Q$ f
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。2 t( I( j5 z9 D0 x/ N
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
$ \4 g+ H8 `0 L' |) lBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。. @) s* {& H \: l* ]( m# v0 g
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
' v5 j( f/ I: ]1 Y. I6 V2024年4月第四次减半
9 D W( F7 Y6 l6 D5 m机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
$ }3 D& a( h. G9 Z可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
: q" d4 D+ w ?0 o5 a针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。" M5 K# p" ?9 H' Y" s
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
% w# {2 q( s1 K l8 l" j& cfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
4 A8 A% Y/ E6 r9 R6 g, y5 {Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠 M% @' H5 C+ ~0 _7 f
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。- F$ u2 W0 f1 a% ?0 L
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁 [, H) C4 V& h" O8 m7 ?
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
' u9 {$ n3 X8 Z& S9 V, z, b7 D+ J金融(TradFi)产品。3 i) `+ j* c: q' m
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨* \$ |. T2 F$ |
链桥」的项目。% @* i( @1 J: } z- ]0 K
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉: w, v& W1 M! L8 R) [, a8 M2 ~
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
( u; E/ r' S$ D1 d等。
]% v9 S& J7 q: c GPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用& [, \7 S3 |, d6 F7 |& g
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。6 f& P% z% e/ _
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN8 u# N5 J: S* r3 S2 e
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位4 [2 t: L" {! z' e( i7 | A# L2 }) h
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
( d5 G" h. r. `) b" u, [# TPantera点名了几个项目：
5 x6 c( ^/ `# _$ wHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
8 C; P1 D( \" r# n' m- `- \Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台) n8 g4 A4 M1 J3 T
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
; z+ D9 g& B, \8 }: qThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
4 O7 K: `* ^4 R0 ^* o% _3 pRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游/ q7 F& a2 m2 P4 U7 G+ F# d
六、小型公链需专注特定应用: _) [8 _, D6 V
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚8 o9 m* Z* J* N0 a( x2 r
至能直接与L2竞争。
% t0 K6 ] a5 h' v8 v1 r/ G+ n/ v也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
) [2 ~# H! j. h/ KPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地9 E% h; Q) z, e' b' p. [. l! O
成为「应用链」。
; A9 x8 M# D9 A/ {事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
^/ |1 o! E" D* \# s$ H- {
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