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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘5 P; l Z( A& q! O% S8 ~
3 V/ P( F3 ?1 r: |8 \# s; B' j 初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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/ d) `9 Q" g0 U) e# S: D; s ' R7 f6 m4 C( H* e0 K( u
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
1 i1 N* u: s8 R) K 英超主队- p& \& Q* \2 B/ K
胜:11场 79%8 n2 b. t. h* \. j/ W4 b8 v* ^/ B
平:2场 14%
' b- z( O0 T _: W; X$ s" w P 负:1场 7%
4 ]3 l" w2 l* v0 A5 X) A
1 \* E2 p7 x+ T 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。; X; W! n" R$ k7 f/ Y/ \
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一、初盘阶段" ]8 z7 ]2 M, j9 n, N
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具体到水位如下:
. q* V; W: q/ h8 \ y/ Y9 i: X 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
1 P0 \5 G# Q3 \: v% k2 K 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平& J/ o. a- O3 ^( x* a& H
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平# J. J* f" _ M' j* }
/ E( r& R' W$ R2 b! F 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
' t F7 x3 L! a0 ~6 h+ ]/ u
. _( m# L& r9 b 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.009 l/ N( X _4 b, K
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.020 S: E/ w* y& E* W# B1 A" L! Q
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
1 {& A* h* b& g6 T% N
4 Z- w: M1 ]. R" d8 z 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
6 S3 K# @: e# ~' o$ |+ F" S 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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3 T3 X5 x% \0 Z 二、临场阶段' W$ l( e4 ?! i6 g: t- D! o1 B7 c
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具体到盘口如下:' o2 b/ Y: q2 }: e2 `* Q4 v
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
& J/ P5 h/ Q Q+ a 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
8 K8 P' V z; i 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:8 v; i* j. u- N3 W8 q. O3 a
8 t9 m# Z7 B% U$ j8 L2 ~. O
热刺VS伯恩利
4 m9 i0 o: W, D; K1 M 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
7 F: F! _) V r+ t* O+ W$ d2 s 终盘:0.77球半1.09
1 f4 d8 ^2 v' [& \ V$ S
- R$ \3 Y4 h, W6 j* E* G 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。3 t+ B2 V" n& ~- N
* K& e8 [$ e* a" n" `/ p0 z) t8 C
三、球队表现
0 K5 k$ f5 Z0 B4 ^
( P! z2 K P$ F, o" H2 P 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
' h3 o! ^" n2 ~# h `4 B" d5 T ! w6 N) p6 b M0 }- G P5 ^9 u
四、投注要点+ K+ |# H* p' x! H H* `' x
; n; c) q4 R) S3 V 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证# b0 g7 H" L4 M9 b/ K
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
- B3 M0 p5 t8 J# E 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能' k( k. c5 s4 c& ]! ^3 X
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
/ }8 U6 b: N( ?2 j N4 Z0 W1 x 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
7 O' |1 T, y2 ` 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
$ E2 m( _ ?: z/ }3 R 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视* V9 r l" c, B8 O
, p8 |/ C- Q* a4 m/ V# q
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法3 o- q. g0 z" e
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方4 U6 {* V/ b, e; p5 S5 g3 [( ?
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。/ Q! \9 L: n1 [5 H3 m5 \2 j, I
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