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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘3 U# W/ v& h, O, W! |$ f1 ]
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷, u5 L/ K# s! r( P6 K
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09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
( i# {# I3 _$ n- P 英超主队
3 i* H- T# m* ]0 d- ?, R 胜:11场 79%2 c) r+ V& }7 T/ ?* _3 q
平:2场 14%
7 @- F, E6 d9 r) K9 Z# p 负:1场 7%
" D* q& T6 _1 x! Q. U1 n+ H 7 Z! T! m) w, _2 F# N. ~- J
通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。( |& j7 h3 ?* G; W% l5 j$ b8 y0 i
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一、初盘阶段
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2 }, Y N: Q: V, ? 具体到水位如下:8 X p" g4 ?+ F- F
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
~* d: ?6 R/ a/ v# x) Q 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平 u* b5 T4 x8 L
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
' w" _* E9 \# `" o7 t. r, d- j 7 ^0 a! q: y: N- }
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:! @$ A' ]; S# U( C1 T; B% i5 R
4 d" I( _: f" ~% o 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.009 j% i" }3 O1 E" D
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
; Z7 ^- }/ m. M& W 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
, W ~9 h8 c# G1 _2 k
) X& @ s3 L4 l 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
s# w! C; l3 p8 P 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
5 Y, z5 w( E& B1 R5 S 7 C% Y4 h7 H9 \3 R2 l; p! n
二、临场阶段& n/ k9 L# j( n+ J7 N0 M" f d# S6 ^
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具体到盘口如下:
0 w; H) k, ~6 w 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜- v# x. {% a) n0 @1 f- L; L q+ P" d
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平# h5 p( U& z' ]6 ?* {. z
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
* f" U7 e! _: H0 t2 u1 R
! H4 `9 G* W" h+ w2 f. S 热刺VS伯恩利
0 l' }# i( y1 X3 D k) E+ C 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
, }; ?6 a* @1 A4 \$ n8 a 终盘:0.77球半1.09 u# U0 q. T. C [
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临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。9 F+ q# m: L3 H9 `1 ?
! o( [2 z0 t: ~: y% f+ D/ w. v 三、球队表现0 Z9 l- g0 {% Q9 _% C* S" i5 G
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在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。, m% l5 P* K. M/ [+ t$ p
3 @4 m4 a# l9 n# e0 F5 N 四、投注要点9 I9 z. t0 `$ k3 H. a' L7 _
2 P# C, L, Y! J f* W! k8 Z 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
* J" \/ m# m# b$ R% U 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
4 n8 \8 [4 k7 u9 h( @' T 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
, K1 k! C p( u. o6 R# y% Y. } 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
0 H P/ E+ j% y. i 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
! @5 Z2 O4 e/ n. _- v. F# T: b 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任! u1 k4 I9 Y \' k9 {. u
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视9 H) w! d5 K7 I; n( U5 r5 X
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对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
2 ^* D2 _* \, P: l 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方# b+ @/ q3 ^' @ k7 h% K6 O+ r
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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