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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘1 Y+ \; r3 f9 N
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷. s, _0 w) e" [/ l) K
1 I# ~2 j( l9 {$ k
, R0 N2 ~+ |2 G2 f 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:0 q2 r& l5 r( R
英超主队
# f% q/ `; l6 \8 o+ k2 e 胜:11场 79%9 I/ \5 @& ~9 E3 N9 s
平:2场 14%: y9 C1 x% b' g* G6 n; a% Q+ z, d6 f8 W
负:1场 7%. b& Z. l8 V' [" X" g$ p9 x7 i
0 p% {: ]/ b3 i/ U9 o 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
) N4 `# h& y5 C; u5 f 4 I$ V* T. ^5 H& A. w4 a
一、初盘阶段! |$ a5 P/ y7 d( P% B
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具体到水位如下:
- f, h% o4 J0 z' r# U 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜9 q- ~8 L x. ?7 e U9 r8 v
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
7 x0 j' f( x- ~3 |9 w 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
: G. t( X8 x5 g$ ] * b$ ]" P' P+ X% g0 p3 w, q
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
2 D0 V( j/ J9 C0 o j$ ~
" A0 A+ M0 f3 g# n& h d3 _ 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00 h8 g; c# S5 i% w" q; |
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
; J/ E3 a3 Q# H3 X4 r" A4 I 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
8 g9 Y; Z/ x" `6 ]6 m, J 7 o: N9 |# Y" Z
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。8 a3 _7 B! b( c4 P( h4 _$ ]
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。 B+ s, v( s$ G6 w# X
/ x4 d1 I0 `! A2 U8 F8 K( ^( s' d 二、临场阶段
) Y7 s) ?+ e3 x0 l- t! Y0 @
% v# `" K% C! c, Q 具体到盘口如下:
* N6 L$ w+ S9 X4 Q7 D) C 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜* M% [" u' b$ M3 ], M s/ n( w
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
/ R, s' z, h0 c( _. l8 z3 r 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:- {: s, s6 h8 |# }5 G! p
+ Y5 a& a8 C S
热刺VS伯恩利
) S! a. c! m0 S0 a" N: y5 t 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
8 l* d3 j; j% _ 终盘:0.77球半1.095 b9 |1 v6 p; L5 _
) M1 }, U& A$ Q* ^# P1 a 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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三、球队表现$ n0 L0 E, G0 B
& [: s) i4 A- q4 B: }8 ] 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
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四、投注要点. c, A1 S5 l! l0 n0 E
& N; y4 ?3 b- u/ |* r; B: O5 G( | 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证6 T9 c1 r( t! ] ^( k5 T9 r
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平" f- K1 }: q, w$ ~1 p6 S
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能# ~+ X/ {$ |4 w5 C
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31. U: B0 Q, E% o6 |7 W5 S
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低1 _$ C) e* e1 x
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
5 ^! P0 L! m4 u- } 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视' M' j* I8 h/ Y
" ^0 y) }9 r- `# L 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
3 b# x. J3 [: H3 p1 o 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
+ n# |6 {' S9 A2 i6 w 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。, ~# e" c: [4 `( y& G3 Z( i
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