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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
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: Y% n9 l+ m9 r) G" X% C 初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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* t! s- l6 s$ Q, N" b, r 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:( s8 z- I2 k# L( k+ L
英超主队
: ~( w' z# D+ _. ^& l 胜:11场 79%
) ?. ?: e$ ~% x7 ] 平:2场 14%3 s! y2 ^, f6 b+ z
负:1场 7%3 H1 j2 W5 h: W1 x% y6 {& v
( N1 z- z$ e G- A% [
通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。0 S3 q- e# i& }( B& _# z
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一、初盘阶段
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具体到水位如下:
/ m3 d0 U B: S5 q9 X9 s 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜4 C5 r. d! n1 s. ~$ e8 {6 o
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
S+ ? A( R4 d& }. e: K* A 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
0 V& M2 \ K: ^, J' u c( p
- @3 N* M7 [7 L0 H/ Z0 ]. f \& [ 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:9 q8 b, _3 d4 ^" {
' L T) A+ \9 Q R6 {0 m( Z9 g 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
: }. {' j& k! l, p5 Y 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.028 ^2 \# J* `* B7 w6 q, b0 V
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00, E9 C: c9 a$ C
8 }/ Q' S% T- c 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
7 B- R7 s* G. Q1 U* A& U7 H 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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二、临场阶段
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# y' ~1 w1 L5 u2 x3 [5 ? 具体到盘口如下:
5 H3 x' u* I; Y$ N, J% X' w 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
6 T5 }0 V5 w. t ] 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平! B# d& k2 P) Q# u
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即: d, s$ T0 E. v+ b: w. K6 j7 x
6 L3 y( c5 V/ x' d$ G# O 热刺VS伯恩利
" s& T+ n5 ~. p/ z& M) \5 [- o 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
: b$ q4 O+ o9 x5 |9 ? 终盘:0.77球半1.09
. A+ B8 \7 L3 u" |! Y H! x/ l- v6 H
$ k$ e' j2 ]+ ]6 \4 u9 o 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。( w/ Z7 j' Y+ s6 r) B. R7 j' E
% s, J0 l0 S6 _. V$ g" i2 I 三、球队表现
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在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。$ t* k l9 ]7 i
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四、投注要点
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* ]* T0 T' ~6 {9 N9 [/ s 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证8 m" t$ K/ B' `% J
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
1 H0 r C. \: {% s8 @ 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
0 ^ m# P& [3 Z) [; @! g* F 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
% \- v9 X W- m. e! T" q$ K$ W& n 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低/ x% P3 g2 I: c- D
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任: ?0 I! N0 F5 o$ q7 b
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
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对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
: I6 ~3 y, v5 |' h6 V& }4 | 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
: S4 I$ k& j2 h7 A" V8 } 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。, w4 e( t8 L+ E. L# d
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