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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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% `8 F2 |4 E+ W7 t! J$ y 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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" f1 n% A$ [/ P3 E! B8 m9 n 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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7 o' K! @4 x% w* y 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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% m5 @* I( O% T X {' V 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。5 _; l0 N0 h/ M& [
% L1 m& K8 D- ~3 X2 r* K 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。2 H# S2 e- X) U( Y8 w2 M. w
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- N; Q7 w* F+ p; h, ~5 T 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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* j- j' K' y& {价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。+ _7 o3 b: D# h, n
5 N% D" T2 P. P! p5 \ “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间) E' i. i! ~( I1 g
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”/ K k/ `' x4 f1 d% I' s+ x
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7 N7 i: u, r- I Q) A' a; i 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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n4 j2 s$ ~5 |. d3 O6 z% G+ b “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在8 K. R- y& a' k+ U$ W7 g# Y1 Y8 M9 Y
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”( v1 e8 K& z. w9 w( J9 w+ t
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% y! v2 r5 @) O( @2 c 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。1 o0 |8 R3 ~+ s7 y! ?
. ^ p: u. C. {# n, q 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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: t5 F) B8 L" [3 m 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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1 n0 O1 Q$ S& f% o( Z% F/ v 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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* p" ~9 y. ?8 g# ?: m0 c9 k, L市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”! y; L+ \# M! |0 P( e4 ]/ Z
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