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[lastpost] => 2750193 以太坊强势逆袭：机构资金涌入背后的价值重构（转） 1752836863 linxiaoshan888
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1 j& O% ]; {5 R- z0 o6 n 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，3 c0 ^/ E- Z. @, t/ Z6 Q5 K
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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' h, j1 i+ r* R4 m/ h逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政) A( y3 ?# F k
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策的确定性。
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6 `9 h2 `1 W, t; _9 v2 c$ r 中信证券主要观点如下：
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$ N2 K; i. T9 s' `7 l) } 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。1 Q& p8 a7 i: J+ v) g
! j) |; ^2 e2 m6 X, t 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。, _7 }2 ], H1 U5 v
7 u# N% L' B4 h 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。1 l% L, S. Z7 Q R! h
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现- U, h7 i( W5 r @/ r
( [4 \2 R6 B) \7 R1 [* a不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。0 H/ `- p" B) B
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。/ M) {0 U# h' X, u8 Y/ @. L. U
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。! o/ l5 ?$ N, o1 @
+ i" ]" [. g- |3 s" y 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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$ ~7 {3 H# C: j& s/ Q/ Q破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。7 E1 ^' h: F9 x6 d# @/ L3 K. L
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。" H( f8 z2 ?0 G( ~3 t3 R" r
# j4 V0 @- P R& \6 p0 n: { 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性5 W& h4 N5 Z @! X9 U
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共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。) v2 m7 S0 t, W' F# g' y
4 x! U. g5 x! {$ S4 [ 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣7 m5 b) ~! P- e4 w' O& k9 N: W% ?
: |% u1 E- M J$ P r) x& `势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。: ?8 y( E! i6 P5 H5 @9 {% B2 y; r8 L8 d
1 |' i n$ w. J- P4 |7 K. f* a; { 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。/ s. {+ D& z/ {
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政& [7 {* X4 Z, J8 \2 \
5 N4 Z- T- e9 B, k6 v8 X3 s策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。& T2 d1 @) h& E$ z7 |
6 h. I" P4 P( y" \2 B 风险因素：6 R7 u7 z5 Y% d' G7 X- E0 x! ~
" n+ v& S' w2 [0 N1 i# j" Z- { 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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