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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。$ i( z% ^8 L3 k
2 B4 C7 M* F2 z# Z/ p* _/ T但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。/ r5 v. T: A a2 ]' o2 e; z8 [( G
# X0 J: h( V* R; Z- w( ~" ~3 f+ dUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？" R9 b. D* o1 [$ [$ q
2 O2 v% u- R) W开局艰难，但历史看好牛市7 P3 e% u+ s( W Y `
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。4 Y* B8 ]$ q7 J5 R, y6 K1 E8 ^
# [" _ x) P7 j来源：Alphractal
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|7 y' t( |+ ?" C15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。0 U6 ?$ Q/ [; u& h4 Y, q4 G
' _, |4 A5 Q6 E1 E+ q事情变得有趣了
; l; |' p( \2 N( L4 pBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。9 E+ d* N- V- ]5 l- @
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来源：X+ z8 ^0 h1 r h m0 H; {. M5 D' S$ b
3 S; C/ |2 z5 w" Y) k根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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( E, u" w0 u8 fBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。; G% u" ?+ O0 @
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。/ [* X. L3 B# D, k7 ^
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力4 P% J/ [/ S# V+ w$ }3 \
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView; g; o, B% I+ v# H
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。! h" Q* x3 m" z! v; t0 ?4 V% @8 w
+ p* k8 W" T! O然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。 g- G5 Z! C+ P' _! g
! `- B0 u; D, C1 C6 ?$ P6 B突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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