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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。, n9 p, {5 O. G3 q6 q
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率+ m' j  x- O6 X; b% W
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:9 H/ X  V! L3 m

: r& C" E4 s- M& x$ N  ~皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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4 k3 P( M6 s! R0 e* A" L以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?) e% s6 [) {# J+ ?6 O

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盈利可能性
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5 Z  Y& O( i8 o. U. e4 s1 C对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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$ ]5 \! @$ e* U( q增值
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, ~  @: n. l) L2 i/ T) b- h1 o6 a许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。0 z- V; F4 N1 O5 [
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 [& v  }/ A$ j$ `: m
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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4 z1 }' U( `$ U  O/ t正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么! G4 v4 O& _6 C7 b" B4 X

3 C$ i1 A& x2 g6 A40%的机会你会收到150元的利润8 x& e! d& m& V& `5 O
60%的机会你会一无所有
7 ?' n# a8 V2 I% A预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 : v' q" s( O  P, y1 q+ v/ _
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。, |2 a" S# c9 k4 }, k9 `
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基于增值的投注# {) d/ U' ]( l+ z
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) M8 ^- t' S: e- u) N$ J

& d  M' b4 K+ d: x' J公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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P=获胜机会
+ a; ^0 [: @1 U$ d. bO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)/ T0 ~5 a' e2 ?# u
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。) T, H' R+ A& @0 m$ j$ h4 `8 j

6 f) p% A* ]* l0 T/ M/ s好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。# F5 S8 F7 |, R9 C. U
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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6 \0 i& @/ x% uA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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, D# L& h. L0 u+ N5 L; uA=0.1( q5 P9 d: Y. _8 e
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去0 [+ u/ ?! I9 L' F, t" }1 t

: L6 D% m" {) R( @3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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% `# G6 e' N/ b0 [1 `A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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/ y9 i6 ?/ P; r结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好; D$ }# d% k" F0 ?( H- E9 z. x* y
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
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