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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率/ E {1 _0 u# g/ c, k" {1 y
+ j H( z5 W5 V以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
' t! G7 T% o) m3 B6 n, I- k! U& g" I2 G4 E% j
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
( q+ c- r/ [: \. h2 {" Y
% @; ]& I! Z$ b, n+ M很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 s) @1 q# m' i
% f) X7 N( h" F3 ?答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!) b% z" h! y" @
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4 _: q4 P5 y N# Z5 f以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?- c2 \1 `: |% N6 ^2 M- ]% j/ n' }
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9 s" D# `0 n& |$ M/ _盈利可能性& u& h+ G7 _ o3 L9 m+ E2 F
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值2 ^$ E) U l- e& U
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?4 N" M1 U$ i$ Z5 }
p e. R# d7 S3 B5 g* k9 j% pa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
5 f) W% E& ~8 H; K: s" B
/ `% B. C: [0 n正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
, v' i3 `2 G5 z% _; V60%的机会你会一无所有
, Q8 M* o4 t6 r5 ^预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
2 q5 W7 k/ J K; E由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。+ P9 x' S: B$ u; g
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基于增值的投注7 r# S8 p- z2 e }
4 F* v7 o1 a. z/ t% P/ [# G( M凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)2 P4 x O. v6 y2 \
" C, z! b! J+ D! {' qA=博彩资金
3 s4 {8 J5 K R1 s7 B4 i1 ^- {P=获胜机会
) f4 p) H" E5 T! [) m1 SO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。7 }% x7 O! F9 P* w) \
6 Y/ p G1 A$ e m1 m" Y. e$ V% V1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)% y) U% w! U" y6 _
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A=0
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5 Z; ^+ _5 @- M结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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5 g& V5 x6 @) U1 w+ U' f! x2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)* M' q! {6 A5 G
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2), {4 Z( f% d) p8 O2 [, _ J1 e) M% Y
9 l7 i" C* [" c: L2 I4 X+ G NA=0.13 m' s' @. | \( w- n
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)( B* T0 w- _; E+ H0 f
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A= -0.2 ; W2 M2 x9 y0 E- _' p9 S
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好8 m9 H1 S, ~& O5 [: q9 u
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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