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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡) n4 E% A/ @% V
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实
1 B5 R- ~2 v% D. Q: i! C质,结果也许真的会大不一样。1 L- D! x. `' s$ E# p
一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多% r& V7 D* S6 a+ G$ E
美元5 l- d9 B# [0 L' k+ |
他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌
+ d; g& U; A+ M2 Y6 A$ `控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可
3 x# T7 l* J3 ]3 @以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。9 H; h/ r& g" x- u& z
Dubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游6 {1 M0 C/ T/ W/ z% K
戏,我赞承这种说法。7 ]8 b$ x. G. K7 B) l- z) v
现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
% D' W9 Z5 e7 G0 ]. j也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。% n. z' H0 \' U9 f! e
首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。3 o; P$ S: c1 y3 r
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?4 i/ Y, l# m) B+ |9 P
疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种
' V: L) d7 P8 f4 ~G-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出
: o; K5 U1 [: A! u- O3 Z的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
6 }/ r( G7 h" }: y* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?, ~5 j: v8 ]' u: _& d- W! s
Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the" [* C9 u0 H& S8 s; P- S2 g
equipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?
, Y9 r, [4 D0 @2 G2 G! E* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?
2 u2 x: g4 O# D0 i9 W9 E* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?
4 D* w- A+ x# P4 [( ]# n0 pCould it be software involved?8 f) X. Z5 I( e1 L0 y+ o' s
* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the9 Z( |8 W- R8 Z- T" N. ^, d7 u$ t) L
same resemblance but never and ever match entirely?, \3 j+ U# T/ g
* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,
/ b4 h9 U: w$ }! s2 ^8 a: }5 m gis it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?# X; y: G$ A. [+ C/ P8 t) j% |
* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
/ [: G/ L: ?5 e* Eto the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?
" r# R) A6 x* N g, _* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take; s+ G1 r$ r' j& n# h; W
their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially
# M: m- Y, O9 c/ ^- awhere there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how
4 s: _; R! z0 n* ]8 B- mmany $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility
1 L0 ~ o% f) Qof the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
$ Z* s9 w# w8 i" I3 w: O- ]** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
1 J0 s8 x! S! T6 P& |2 B& n' o** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。8 U" C$ I; E( r( x: p
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
) [, s# X0 N. a$ C! _5 T似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...! S+ ?: ?+ J) ?* F3 \2 y2 y
Winning numbers how there are selected" D6 U ~( E) m
This is the way we select the winning numbers:5 X, Y( \: L7 ~# P$ C! A/ D5 E
Select "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers) O" E2 F7 R- d$ O/ j8 Z
where Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'
- W/ Z# Z' k$ V0 H7 Y$ R( j: Kand Method_of_Played='XXXX'+ y1 ?3 g7 @+ T5 F
On each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected." v! u/ G9 a( c" i) s/ q+ y# v
We run this query against all played sets.- G) F! ^* O! }5 y( O0 w
We then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.
( o: L) L; f: E0 z6 u" B7 i1 xFor example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run% m7 T, i3 F- W* s6 r4 G+ u1 z5 X
the following query:
- V6 ^6 K! Z, }, @5 V3 VSelect unique numbers_set from played_numbers- ?1 `: ^7 L6 }2 Q7 \* d+ k1 h
where province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';
' z$ \6 x5 c; cIt just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.
. V3 l% s* n+ _* aWe prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.
/ U8 Q( f+ w2 X; h2 f! d, YIf we do not want a winner we run the following query:
; I3 \0 k' w! k! S, W, _' t1 O: C0 USelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;
h$ L9 I8 e$ K8 s' {0 O" S( ~: r上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。0 |' y4 x5 M( G6 E( x3 u
虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),
% ` I) p9 |: _% A很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。
( ^. O" X& ]8 g6 i- Q& u疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司
5 f! W8 {7 x. S+ z4 H- ~$ i- l5 O在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖" o3 U% c: u: u; k) D8 B% V
人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?; b9 D$ z1 i! Z0 Z% E! n& s
为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖* X' |; _- u5 N
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。5 d4 {7 ]+ x) S* C
疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重
/ k% C- Z2 ]- Y5 K: u7 I! h复中彩者)
- [ W1 X7 |2 v( u6 |$ i为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的
+ G/ y* ~1 C' L- `. w0 q. r" {+ |4 Z可能性?/ k- o/ z# f- M. L0 t4 w; c
疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable
+ L2 l0 y- g! u9 CBenefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?" \ p/ N1 n6 H# Q; U- s
下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、
$ ?/ ` i: P1 oTaxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而
) o& ^0 A; q, D: J% o, a止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心; a3 @( z. r0 e
理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最
8 P* w; t1 b+ S5 p& J基本的知识。
" m0 P4 R! `% p2 l1 x应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,$ }! Q6 Q* Z; H
在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票
$ u! O) _& ?. p! r而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比
1 ~) G8 Q& `9 ^! i+ l! F如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5
% I, r5 T; \9 p个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。
n) L* E) q$ k1 ]7 L理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可 N. P' G+ V; u! I. E
结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业
+ x |+ t( H9 T! @3 k0 ?% E玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。: u9 _' v8 x) a. F2 y
20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,
$ C( n) o) d/ g/ l7 P: o3 k似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有+ Y5 y% h$ p; u3 o2 t$ W
人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最
; b& ^ B2 M- A6 r- i! b后你还有70%的机率是赔。
# H5 H' r$ o: \$ p9 m( |6 i即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick
( D5 O- j \: Y1 d9 [pick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。
* n7 C' M; a4 a& W9 w6 k且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率
$ |& c) u* n) S! e也不保证100%中奖机率。
' V* R$ |7 S8 z举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,0 z& L3 d2 s4 w4 G% c
却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少
0 D) J& @9 b) b' ]# y* `买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计4 v. F' n( P |9 C. l
一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling, w9 }& l, }% B5 F8 W
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech
# ~2 i- E; i0 n2 W影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。0 K% L/ O. ]7 Q( A9 Z0 c
如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你5 }$ X; f1 f; ?0 S. X2 j
没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。
% n1 n/ m, M1 |- T说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。
: @- U$ I! {- }( j: A4 T明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;4 \7 T- i! C7 |% }
不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;
: K3 V& _* r* g: X/ A. J不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。; Y' q* b# q" ] f0 T8 y
且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,/ q9 i7 s9 d( w/ ?# w- J
前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。/ A& R4 G: M4 H; Z; F6 b
比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖% z: E' n( ^ B( }$ p3 t1 ^4 w
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。
`5 @$ `0 e# X% |5 n* w对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复9 }( |0 P, K: F' m6 z* \5 Y+ M3 f1 P
1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次 ~+ c. b3 O' [( S( l1 b
数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。
, @- W0 B/ l% ?明白人知道这里我想说明什么。
0 d6 V3 `3 Z* A9 z4 B0 l7 D/ s在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或
( q) {7 N- t% x' }- Y$ B% S( W8 u0 Z大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系& g/ q3 |4 T2 m: t" y
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,
- q$ O( ?5 }$ i但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为
8 O; J4 U* x6 z. R' e& m$ V止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期
( `3 V' k" U% P5 P- _0 Z奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,
$ m+ R3 @4 [# m" e+ g. h4 O g$ w有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。2 N# r4 ]$ _, Y3 ^0 q% q, B
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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