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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)( E z: @/ v! V% N
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实" ~+ o6 D' x% ~' Z1 K* E5 w! L
质,结果也许真的会大不一样。
- F1 w' S7 I5 W5 F一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多
' X! y: G8 v% W美元1 S# h; i: }- w
他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌) _" j* z8 d8 q: g& w8 J5 B2 _4 x6 K
控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可5 {" c m' Q. e% P' ?# v: A
以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。( W$ Y$ n! f# {9 U5 p: A" I0 N% L
Dubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游7 ~/ A! d% @' n
戏,我赞承这种说法。- u! P7 r! T+ x( O, _& F6 |/ r
现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
; I4 }# I" `. p i, j; @也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。7 q8 s- k( I& ~0 W8 N
首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。
% J( W, W3 w" K" }玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?) |) |' f4 s- |8 f) X
疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种
- k1 P: }+ b4 K* L, LG-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出% f, E' ^* S V3 @
的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
# X8 d J# Y/ t5 @% l& R& `4 H* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?# ^( W3 B% ?$ Q. i" M4 i
Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the- S* N, k5 G8 z/ h: z# ~
equipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?
% U, I2 a* F( R7 R p3 r. h" q; E* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?5 T! f: N' R6 ?% v
* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?% c4 e2 m6 J" f, T N4 W# b e1 Q
Could it be software involved? [$ o$ M" F7 Z2 z1 Z$ _7 c Y
* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the7 Z" o/ s" k& `6 a0 x4 _
same resemblance but never and ever match entirely?5 \! y( C/ e, c- t
* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,. T3 B$ g6 P0 G+ t
is it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?
; b5 t/ N9 B1 B5 r* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
+ N4 V% d1 N% F) dto the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?! \4 \5 @* y1 _0 B! }' _* E
* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take' ~ N3 U# H# r0 @- w
their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially# T# d0 c; f3 R3 q
where there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how
5 t2 U, W& E; u: Qmany $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility
' e3 G- c" a0 }; b2 g6 x! |# Xof the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
9 q: U: ?( i4 x* v** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
0 J' Z0 A) a# i, a Q$ T5 z% S: y5 H8 V& ~** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。
% c8 V3 i, x: y1 s0 q2 e6 k疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP. D, j& Y$ h. E0 Z! d+ Q" y, t
似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...
& P$ G7 _9 l" m9 }7 a2 r% PWinning numbers how there are selected$ r5 P: u: n/ g& y$ C. B! i
This is the way we select the winning numbers:
, e0 [+ l& x! O- s* lSelect "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers$ f. }+ D% A/ m7 W7 e5 p8 t
where Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'. ?" A4 P9 o) B. i( W. W5 z
and Method_of_Played='XXXX'6 o5 Q2 w, N+ _8 {& L
On each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.. F( k8 s: W$ R7 I, Q( V
We run this query against all played sets.
; `4 g7 l% J d `% cWe then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.
3 A4 p0 C* s. X& _For example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run( t/ b& k3 A2 N, c
the following query:& ^+ P4 O( v# v+ r7 K0 w8 V
Select unique numbers_set from played_numbers
/ R6 L. g+ }5 @1 J' ?where province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';
7 k$ O6 \3 V! d1 LIt just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.# V0 g3 L" W- f2 t3 N) [( m g
We prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.- c% Y3 m8 z& |7 s* r+ a; j2 M
If we do not want a winner we run the following query:$ L" s n) [, e1 ?$ g( R
Select unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;
5 u) b v& u! d/ ^) |- F, e& {上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。
9 ^! v6 w' m, ^8 V4 y+ O: K1 n* U8 m虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),0 a% d, \4 o+ `8 r6 m/ g" e
很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。3 f; z: \, Y2 V, y
疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司
% I+ ^4 f8 M9 x% B9 i$ `7 l& n# O0 B在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖
, e: V8 d% H$ S人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?; a3 y* V! {4 _$ k4 _! v
为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖$ R* r. j4 h7 s- R/ [
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。: y! [& d, _4 f1 c
疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重3 W0 l( `4 }: Z7 Z! e3 i% \% S
复中彩者)
- N+ A2 ], T" W( ?* I为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的
, v# @2 a" O h$ w. N, e5 u可能性? {" B6 F/ i) o0 z$ n' f# v- z- a
疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable
7 ^# X1 j5 R1 A' xBenefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?
8 B7 {+ H+ Z! p- D下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、
6 e& v8 v! `0 r: i9 K0 sTaxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而
4 L( c& F! D, w) p止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心
& I7 t8 Q( Y/ y. r: }( C理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最6 r" H# q3 ^7 {/ u) ]+ H+ D
基本的知识。+ {" m% i2 H) P7 i6 v7 G/ e
应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,; M2 L6 t' l% x
在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票
3 c& w1 b) R' v# T5 M而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比
9 @* m' N: Q6 Z5 J, z, ^0 D如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5
6 M" U0 @. x. T% U, d- {5 y个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。
. s5 y8 Q8 {/ |" g- C2 l9 t, Y理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可
8 H% {5 E8 q" _1 Q5 ^! k7 ?% A5 M- g结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业
8 R, K/ s3 x) Q/ A8 D& J玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。
( I- _4 J/ [9 ~4 ^! ?1 g20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,, G d3 i- B* O3 D) t* ^! M: m
似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有- E8 i( U' s, B) A/ ^! K/ W/ t
人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最
9 |" s$ |2 R @ G5 j后你还有70%的机率是赔。
: [: D4 c9 x+ i即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick& E1 |0 c! K. _
pick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。
4 x2 T4 ]" |( i1 x! I. `3 {% i且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率
: l) v0 u, T9 }7 X. x! V0 k! m7 I也不保证100%中奖机率。
$ P. Y& s, ^) F8 F举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,
9 w! {2 F; @+ n" o却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少6 A# j: k) o& I, F6 E* f& m" m
买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计
: l( \9 |% O' l j D一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling1 f( @! H% y: R. n9 r2 L* b9 V8 X9 n, e
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech
K8 e' ?! B7 Q8 x: W' ~0 Q影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。, b: B7 q' ^: J, i( s# r1 z
如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
5 ?1 w- h; v6 X# y没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。
( C4 I( R2 X0 f% q: o2 v- n说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。' i# a4 e9 Q$ X; C3 _4 B
明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;
- z( q. g9 Z3 N不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;
; A/ K% r: d& Q$ [! {7 W# I+ q6 \不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
X/ g- o/ j; ^1 N" U P2 K3 k$ @且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,3 r6 S4 p9 ` N& u2 @0 @/ n
前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。
; k/ f6 I7 ?' S6 v: d比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖7 U/ K' s& P* b; b$ Z+ T8 y
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。
! Y, F' O I4 B# n对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复
3 I% H B- U5 [' X2 A1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次# E. n8 [% U1 j; z. H) w
数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。1 ^1 @! r" y) x$ _
明白人知道这里我想说明什么。
3 K0 M8 x" M9 }" A# M/ i在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或- m/ P8 y# d% C7 g2 k- O
大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系! U" n8 _+ x8 K2 A
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,
# S. A. w* h7 T* ]+ m" d但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为6 I) I* O. \8 J4 Y
止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期7 S1 k: A5 e M+ e5 J. ]( w: b
奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,; ?' g. L$ b' Y6 q! v
有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。+ a0 U. `2 X0 i. Q$ x3 k3 T
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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