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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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0 T# z) _! i" E# V$ C只跟踪一个联赛; F/ |( c4 G3 H4 ^& }9 A
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2 f1 i' [; t' v2 `$ k* p0 c全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔* F% ]+ l2 ^) R$ Z- p. N& c
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，+ H7 U6 O& w) x9 B$ ]3 I* c

, J" I5 f( Z8 O0 [& Z4 D* z0 y偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。$ |' l; o( i( h5 [; k3 t

5 g9 F* B' E7 t. V( Q7 |方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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$ N% J& L& L9 d  v0 X- ]6 {然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱2 |* A7 g" D, a% `

7 V  u! b! ~) i当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目9 A$ k% \. I3 P0 y! ?7 ]* v" w

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: b& S+ _5 Z% Z6 M  U亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，0 |% n& g. z% B& O/ E/ `$ ^
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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# {6 }1 M% L* U: W9 e$ Z但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，0 a# q) B: P' x! y

: K, z  i+ r3 g  c7 u% k5 ]但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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6 W' p8 U$ j3 J5 |( @. d$ c这比买国债存银行合算。0 g. F; f  W# R5 d: n( s& n

. o4 ?' _6 W4 f# A7 g) m在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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( _% ^0 C8 f5 ~1 u几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。" d9 C! u7 B9 Y- j% o

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。7 C1 [# L9 M5 \0 q& B/ L! N

8 ?5 T% A& S" P- z! y放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，6 v) j9 ~6 {8 Z8 r. A

# x. S8 y/ |% z4 r$ h( c+ D回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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