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小分3种情况:( m- J; z" q6 S3 f( j& R+ x# J
6 A9 h4 M- D- i/ e T K& l) a2 a
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
) @% [% c5 x4 _( Y$ S
5 |* ?. H: L; |! z2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。- j* y2 L: q6 o7 T. u
) x8 C y- x# e3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。& ^; n! }* r7 J; e. m9 K A
6 [; l7 l% J E0 l) K- b
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
B8 F, X# ?8 v. N9 R3 D! Q7 [( |* o+ V1 C# ^* |0 T
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+107 X6 y# N2 l0 v- [
{! g4 n( B) D2 @3 ^
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
4 ]7 @+ ^; d$ S% s9 k; h* |
, B8 a7 ~5 D) X$ Q0 _! V4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415# b* ]* r) ^ {9 o
/ J# a% F7 T% Q6 c9 A+ w8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 n1 v1 J. V' H6 D: V' o/ ^
7 c5 N: B; D/ d: K! m由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。1 }7 c/ K: }7 T$ ]
. W4 @ f8 l- C通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。) }6 E$ c K4 B9 K$ P- \: Q
- u5 k! L7 w4 h
那么我们可以得出
8 u: a' k* f& F4 V- [- U
8 {3 r, @; A5 D: q% m1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662, i* V- g: ~" E/ M+ m( U3 j1 f' M
. ?$ e6 S0 t! z( Y2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 : V7 V8 H/ z5 }( D9 [, k/ o8 X
& ~. l. _) W+ Y8 E! D* t8 p3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
4 e9 E& `: y$ r4 l/ p9 g( r1 \) G0 f' V$ S" K$ X, z
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
% @$ _8 r. U# \: f1 F
# X7 @! f1 v; z百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
- G% J1 m, z* Z5 `$ B- D* a, x( M |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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