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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘9 v* o( `1 M2 D$ O, O4 L
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平手中水,主队有利
0 p0 }* [& r8 @; a( J1 x 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。. R* D8 e5 \ x' t; b8 v9 C
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:- m& P$ \" h# }4 Z
英超主队
9 F! X2 G H! N2 {' i) i# i; m 胜:13场 48%! `5 _- u2 m( u) E6 D
平:5场 17%! S* R% ^% E) t @. B4 f% \; O
负:9场 35%1 Q) u4 L- p: m9 l. S2 `) W
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。- `( S! T: ]2 \1 e( M, c' J- q
' t S5 l! Y% @* N! f. J
一、初盘阶段
# H2 C8 S+ n6 c \/ _; Z" ` 具体到水位如下:8 F! [" ]3 A5 A2 P7 T
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负! M% _2 u5 ^! g1 C
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负( d% M( b* H0 M% p3 R
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
- H! x5 i. @% d$ _8 x, Y$ Q2 F. L
: N Y/ v$ g6 ?% I9 J5 ?* D 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。) C1 P ?% ^8 _" U3 e$ y
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
, v/ t% u/ B0 c B9 W 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
$ i4 R- Q% _; n2 f " U9 s+ l6 }8 c- @
二、临场阶段
n- t" X, J5 u" K; b % |: J; d* [* C( n3 p. m- R
具体到变盘和水位如下:6 H- v" r9 W0 Q/ k7 ^
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
% `$ S. s6 r+ V( o( ?) X, { 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负2 f' S1 F/ l0 u% W! G1 ^
* d6 F% A+ K3 ~3 | A- y) c0 P2 P- y 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。1 p6 W0 F7 W3 h' p' D
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
% B4 c+ B1 M! r" O# }8 D; ]4 a
. K+ ]3 Y8 U9 B+ B# R$ ^ 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿* B: B- v3 H, K, R+ a4 r$ A
初盘:0.82平手1.04
+ V- l' Q6 o* o1 g0 [& c( T* x! W0 l6 J 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85: G; j% @0 B. q& u I$ v# @; q4 L
+ U% L2 o8 P3 @ 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
7 S z/ X5 j1 e9 Y" l) H 初盘:0.76平手1.10) |/ _) k. K$ u0 l4 p6 _
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91$ _6 v& q$ G# l: [1 B( `: O) X
0 ?+ w6 T- H# V9 M/ ~; O
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技$ y2 H; O) X( i! h6 p) o$ f
初盘:0.82平手1.044 ^0 W, `2 g4 l3 E
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.984 u" j8 R. U I8 V: X: ^% t. Y {' w
( `, y; {: c1 ^7 E
伯恩利2-1西汉姆* O2 O" M4 H, D# X6 f
初盘:0.88平手0.98
. Z" [1 y5 b. S* [, {8 N7 o 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
) U) H. w9 T' ]) `2 ] 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。3 m+ U: i3 I0 n/ b8 p4 y) k
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
# A S1 [' }# m1 G# K5 N& H) I 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
6 T$ z+ {' m8 N, \7 h% R! P + p; Q! j0 p( E+ c+ i: q$ X
三、球队表现
; H: b9 e! }, y* ?$ Z
L# p: U: M K9 E2 U: n' p 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
0 W% D0 [7 n. R# r' V2 ~" w
6 v; P* z" ~/ e3 R. S 四、投注要点
^; f# Y: ~# X$ r 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
( C( P. G6 F5 V3 A9 z 要点2:平手降盘、走两头" l4 L3 t, R: p# ?8 a7 ~
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
) O2 l! w$ W X' a 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
$ _" `7 T- s6 l- R5 P" l 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任1 @4 @. c. L. a' h" w/ [
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
/ T7 f' t; ? l 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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