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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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9 K& T2 f% o: a! m5 _$ D0 ^其实原文标题不是这样的; M. Q3 c# a7 }; S9 Q
8 D- e" e: `7 U5 x/ [; S, n这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...% m/ n" \" k! n9 `4 u, w
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。' G& @* i: P# e, z1 ~) a7 i
% v x% O- a; G# _: l- I+ V 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
' q7 `( }' A5 o6 X7 A- t5 O* ^, J( w8 P) w( }: D
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」5 i# v5 Y5 ~: ~. ?6 m
* o9 R5 s* r: x/ \3 u, Q「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 ! u" M+ F! e r1 V' B
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」) X$ {$ S; w- S. X. F( I8 A M, Z
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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' [$ ~1 M6 ]# T* |" F接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
6 k/ \' P. `! i) K1 p% ?8 u! S因此铜板较容易出现正面。7 n" C. e3 m3 M2 l8 S& G, }
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 , s; O' q/ v& o. w) X
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
3 |3 ]/ F8 N t1 P心想赢定了。
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# P; z8 c9 T- o: h. v没想到开始不到半刻钟，4 I/ V6 x) u; @" d4 N% c4 U
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」* _. ^; {2 D0 G3 c4 ~# E
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
. p! n/ `7 a r4 O但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
# S7 } P" X6 {7 d/ Z! L他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：( b! n/ g% L7 I$ \% I* H0 X
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
( _. s2 ?4 t( A1 }- U& Z3 ]「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」, ^; A' y3 M0 z7 U
「而不是先发生在我身上。」4 N/ L% }. c* a. m) i& R
4 `: m3 l7 G7 y1 n8 Y+ y1 F 赌徒恍然大悟，8 u4 B% s. Y( F
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，1 ^! @3 \( j1 ?) o. v6 F) f. j
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！& K% M7 E" Z+ K6 R+ N; _' f
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
3 x2 P' y/ x5 k; i上帝说完便不见踪影。 * j) [: g7 A- B, _' @$ h: J, p
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，! l& O2 Q3 }0 c! r! Y
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
( g [: N# r2 i& ^1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，3 a* C; g+ l" v5 ]! M
对赌徒十分有利。
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( [/ Y' i! E' M2 ~* X/ t& k* G: c但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
% h7 ]8 v1 X* a! X& P在还没掷到1000次之前，
! t& B$ o: t+ l/ o( p仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。* Y; X. d8 L4 V5 N4 D, B( l
+ I0 w `( m. n% ] 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。2 F/ U- i8 l. b ~# k) E H+ b( v8 d
; j/ ^1 J3 m* p% A- V; Q$ N 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。4 d4 N1 I& y% Z$ q
0 M* d% Q9 R0 N, r! e" j 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，/ [* X. k* L0 q& _6 ]% s- _* S
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ ' [/ Z3 t; J! Y; w
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