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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币% O9 U, |$ P0 B9 W
的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会
" l* ?0 c) E+ c1 c7 B. g* `的政策方向注定会失败。) U/ ^) S9 l0 F0 t5 Z9 F' }
批评联准会提油救火
0 f+ w4 L# n8 c/ bArthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然
. o. |: l8 ^; \+ V, E而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行# i) ?. y2 ~7 x# o& p0 J
体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。
8 \; ]0 N6 c; a" BHayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今
9 S1 T2 Q- C) h6 P. E( z7 p) l5 d天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受
6 P, F" O4 | G9 d到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。+ r& v* c% y% m4 I4 J' m- |
Hayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来6 b7 k: v, Q; E$ C+ R v
看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。
+ _4 ?% o/ J% ~8 Y6 q( \恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
: W! A% y$ ^& u5 B2 Q1 X9 YArthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他' N7 X) Z) z7 l; Q% j
指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政
. \: K+ s' E- X府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最
& f4 _4 W- a- v) F0 r/ u- O3 P终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。
$ s/ z9 p; T' A! v) l2 eCalormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由
& y: h0 L4 F) @) R6 d6 h于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会
5 Q( K' v( i" o# S% g3 q突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货
4 t5 |; ^) l. p' W; f0 f& |币。
! I0 R" K$ w, z6 D! O9 g- e9 X; ~6 N; p5 T( A7 ^/ H1 R8 h
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