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[lastpost] => 2768559 随着山寨币热潮的兴起，狗狗币的目标是到 2025 年达到 1 美元（转） 1758703600 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币
2 g. P/ R5 W: G+ x4 g的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会* N5 B' A" M) c6 l! n( }% j
的政策方向注定会失败。
& Z4 L# c N( Z2 g( `3 j批评联准会提油救火, [# C( s7 i% a
Arthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然/ H) Q& N+ Q! \+ s9 q6 F7 D
而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行& J1 T8 ` R. v! A
体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。
; V5 ^2 E8 w2 }$ r% L5 | `Hayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今
! m5 l' i0 ]$ A; t3 X7 h& D. J" I/ v. {天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受
$ h$ O( m+ |& E% O( ?$ Q) F到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。
8 R2 s4 M9 B: D, ]Hayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来1 E% x @% P2 O. j
看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。
, ^7 b0 G- v7 a) i7 R1 H% _$ I恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
5 J) I' s# s- p+ cArthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他
4 f' {! }; W: x& T( t6 @; @指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政! O* E. u7 u; m# N7 s
府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最
, G' `1 z( a/ \: {终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。; H1 P+ }" q `$ j. k
Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由
0 h# X* Z, s: M( r0 r于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会
0 P9 f* \' x; Z突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货5 V) Q. P1 ]( t% p
币。* |3 ~- K/ |' x2 u# r- h- t3 e
3 _# g$ e( y6 r' ]" N+ U |
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